The author makes a lot of assumption, all dubious.
1. “Vulnerable Democrats won’t vote for impeachment.” Ha, they will vote as they are told, or else. Articles of Impeachment have been introduced several times since 20 Jan 2017.
2. “Two-thirds vote in the Senate. That won’t happen”. Ha, I count at least 55 to convict and probably closer to 62. Don’t forget that little Johnny Roberts is the presiding judge.
3. “civics and Constitutional ignorance of their base”. While that may be 50% of the country, does the other half stay quiet and let this all happen? Doubtful, at best. Acquiescence at worst.
I would suggest this....it will become a thousand-ring circus. Roberts may think he’s presiding over this....but Trump will have his legal team to oppose the House prosecution team, and his people will poke at Hunter, Joe Biden, Hillary and the DNC at every chance. Then you toss on the fact that Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Lindsey Graham (all accomplished lawyers) will be hammering Roberts on each decision that he makes and lecture him to the ninth degree.
All of this will be filmed by the Trump crew and used for November campaign footage. It will destroy the DNC strategy in the end.