Posted on 08/28/2019 8:20:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Over the last few weeks, we've been exploring the competing narratives about the US economy -- with the White House insisting that all is well, as many in the media hype up the possibility of a coming recession. My general conclusion at this point has been that while there are some soft spots and genuine warning signs, the economy's fundamentals remain quite strong. Unemployment has been quite low, the job market has been quite robust, and wage growth has broken free from years of frustrating stagnation. We also recently received positive news on other indicators, including productivity, retail sales, and overall consumer spending:
U.S. consumers spent more in July than economists expected, the federal government said on Thursday, as retail sales rose 0.7% vs. the 0.3% estimated. Excluding automobile sales, a more volatile component, retail sales rose 1% — double what economists anticipated. Why it matters: Consumers were largely unfazed by the increasing economic uncertainty in July, defying other indicators that point to a global slowdown or recession. The data also comes as Walmart, one of the world’s biggest retailers, posted strong financials for its most recent quarter.
But perception can sometimes shape or morph into reality, so if the media's recession drumbeat started to shake Americans' confidence, there's a chance it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Not so fast. Over to you, Americans -- via Team Trump:
More great economic news!
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy has climbed to the highest levels in nearly 19 years - the highest since November 2000!
"Hiring and income gains are keeping consumers upbeat." https://t.co/lYCHHswvfR— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) August 27, 2019
U.S. consumer confidence declined in August by less than forecast as Americans’ assessment of current conditions climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years, helped by a job market that remains robust. The Conference Board’s index eased to 135.1 this month from a revised 135.8, according to data from the New York-based group Tuesday that exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge of views on the present situation jumped to 177.2, the highest since November 2000...The reading shows hiring and income gains are keeping consumers upbeat and assuaging concerns about the economy’s prospects in light of slowing global growth, volatile financial markets and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The level of confidence could allow for sustained household spending that remains a mainstay of the economy. The share of respondents who say jobs are currently plentiful jumped to 51.2%, the highest since September 2000, while the share saying jobs are hard to get declined to the lowest in three months.
In spite of the global slowdown and an escalating trade war with China (which may be slightly de-escalating), Americans feel good about their job prospects and income games. These are powerful countervailing factors. I'll also note that part of the reason people's take-home pay is up is the 2017 tax reform law, which reduced average tax burdens across every single income group in the country, with the possible exception of millionaires. The 2020 Democrats, in addition to proposing an explosion of new spending -- which will massively exacerbate our already-scandalous deficit and debt trajectory -- are pledging to cancel the successful GOP-passed tax cuts. This would raise taxes on working-class and middle-income Americans. The opposition party has an insatiable appetite for confiscating more of people's private wealth and earnings:
Finally, no, the tax cuts are not the reason we have disastrous deficits and a looming debt crisis. As usual, it's the overspending:
Revenue up 3%, spending up 8% equals deficit of $897 billion in 10 months. DC doesn’t care. https://t.co/caOIIgwDRi— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) August 13, 2019
Taxes were cut, federal revenues went up, but were eclipsed by accelerating bipartisan spending. You do the math.
Tax cuts reduced revenues not in absolute terms, but to a number lower than had been expected before the cuts occurred.
Here’s the thing. If Obama had sounded like Trump and done the things Trump has done, the recovery would have been years faster in coming. But, as he told a reporter who pointed out that lower taxes increased government income, “At some point it’s not about money. It’s about fairness.” That sums up the difference between a raging economy and one that is biding its time waiting for the commie to be gone.
The number of recessions and stock market crashes the mass media called ahead of time: zero. The stock market has never crashed when there is widespread chatter predicting it.
thanks for the link ... more enlightening than the typical deluge of wordiness at townhall ...
Blinking headline on Yahoo right now:
“Are Millenials Prepared for the Coming Recession?”
These people absolutely do SUCK!
Of course. CNN said it, so they know it’s false.
Once again, the truth puts the msm to shame.
Excellent.
Reality wins over propaganda.
meanwhile at Drudge.... you’d think we were on the cusp of the next great depression
Exactly right, and that’s the infuriating bit.
“I’d rather be out of work and hate myself than have a *conservative* in the White House.”
Blindingly stupid, short-sighted, narrow-minded lemmings.
and
First it’s Russia - Russia - Russia.
Then it’s Racist - Racist - Racist
Now it’s Recession - Recession - Recession
Read later.
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