Turkey had a tactical deal with the Assad Regime/Russians/Iranians to administer the Northern parts of Syria, while the Assad Regime fought to regain control of rebel held areas elsewhere.
Well that battle is pretty well won, and now the Regime and the Russians are up to the border of the Turkish held areas.
Turkey wants to keep that territory, and they want to continue to train and equip Sunni islamist extremists there. Effectively, Turkey has allowed al Queda (calling itself al Nusra), to take control of Idlib Province in Syria, close to the Heartland of Assad's Alawite minority, and the Russians strategic airbase and sea port.
It looks like the tactical truce is over (or about to end) and the next phase will be the Regime/Russians/Iranians pushing out al Queda and the Turks.
More bad guys killing bad guys...works for me.
As this next phase of the Syrian war progresses, the Regime and its allies will likely eventually recapture the al Queda (al Nusra) controlled areas of Idlib. It will likely be a hard slog for a while.
That would then bring them to the Kurdish area of Afrin, which has also been occupied by Turkey, and used as a dumping ground for Sunni jihadis from elsewhere in Syria.
That phase would likely engage the Kurdish SDF (our allies) in pushing out Turkish occupiers (also our putative allies), and leave the bulk of the hyper-violent jihadis no where to go, except Turkey itself.
But for now, the big news is that President Erdogan’s investment in cultivating Russia, by turning his back on NATO to buy the S-400 Air Defense System, seems to have been a strategic failure. Putin may have just played him for temporary tactical advantage in Syria, and to generally disrupt NATO.
This was never a civil war. It was always a war that could be ended in an afternoon, if and when the Turks, Qataris, and Obama State Department so decided.
What I noticed from the beginning was that journalists could not enter territories held by the Syrian “rebels”, it was too dangerous. Nor could international inspectors of any kind. And that refugees could return home when neighborhoods had been reclaimed by Assad’s forces.
This doesn’t make Assad a good guy, there were lots of good reasons to take him down and take him out. But not if your replacements are Al Qaeda and ISIS.
Syrian rebels = Al Qaeda
Thanks Neocons...
Wow, what a strange world where I find myself rooting for Assad. And by “rebels” I think they mean ISIS.
Turkey is not our friend.
Let them fight and get all of our troops out so we don’t get dragged in.