Posted on 05/17/2019 3:29:46 AM PDT by Kaslin
Speaking on state TV of the prospect of a war in the Gulf, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei seemed to dismiss the idea.
"There won't be any war. ... We don't seek a war, and (the Americans) don't either. They know it's not in their interests."
The ayatollah's analysis -- a war is in neither nation's interest -- is correct. Consider the consequences of a war with the United States for his own country.
Iran's hundreds of swift boats and handful of submarines would be sunk. Its ports would be mined or blockaded. Oil exports and oil revenue would halt. Air fields and missile bases would be bombed. The Iranian economy would crash. Iran would need years to recover.
And though Iran's nuclear sites are under constant observation and regular inspection, they would be destroyed.
Tehran knows this, which is why, despite 40 years of hostility, Iran has never sought war with the "Great Satan" and does not want this war to which we seem to be edging closer every day.
What would such a war mean for the United States?
It would not bring about "regime change" or bring down Iran's government that survived eight years of ground war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
If we wish to impose a regime more to our liking in Tehran, we will have to do it the way we did it with Germany and Japan after 1945, or with Iraq in 2003. We would have to invade and occupy Iran.
But in World War II, we had 12 million men under arms. And unlike Iraq in 2003, which is one-third the size and population of Iran, we do not have the hundreds of thousands of troops to call up and send to the Gulf.
Nor would Americans support such an invasion, as President Donald Trump knows from his 2016 campaign. Outside a few precincts, America has no enthusiasm for a new Mideast war, no stomach for any occupation of Iran.
Moreover, war with Iran would involve firefights in the Gulf that would cause at least a temporary shutdown in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz -- and a worldwide recession.
How would that help the world? Or Trump in 2020?
How many allies would we have in such a war?
Spain has pulled its lone frigate out of John Bolton's flotilla headed for the Gulf. Britain, France and Germany are staying with the nuclear pact, continuing to trade with Iran, throwing ice water on our intelligence reports that Iran is preparing to attack us.
Turkey regards Iran as a cultural and economic partner. Russia was a de facto ally in Syria's civil war. China continues to buy Iranian oil. India just hosted Iran's foreign minister.
So, again, Cicero's question: "Cui bono?"
Who really wants this war? How did we reach this precipice?
A year ago, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a MacArthurian ultimatum, making 12 demands on the Tehran regime.
Iran must abandon all its allies in the Middle East -- Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza -- pull all forces under Iranian command out of Syria, and then disarm all its Shiite militia in Iraq.
Iran must halt all enrichment of uranium, swear never to produce plutonium, shut down its heavy water reactor, open up its military bases to inspection to prove it never had a secret nuclear program and stop testing missiles. And unless she submits, Iran will be strangled with sanctions.
Pompeo's speech at the Heritage Foundation read like the terms of some conquering Caesar dictating to some defeated tribe in Gaul, though we had yet to fight and win the war, usually a precondition for dictating terms.
Iran's response was to disregard Pompeo's demands.
And crushing U.S. sanctions were imposed, to brutal effect.
Yet, as one looks again at the places where Pompeo ordered Iran out -- Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza, Syria, Iraq -- no vital interest of ours was imperiled by any Iranian presence.
The people who have a problem with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are the Israelis whose occupations spawned those movements.
As for Yemen, the Houthis overthrew a Saudi puppet.
Syria's Bashar Assad never threatened us, though we armed rebels to overthrow him. In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militia helped us to defend Baghdad from the southerly advance of ISIS, which had taken Mosul.
Who wants us to plunge back into the Middle East, to fight a new and wider war than the ones we fought already this century in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen?
Answer: Pompeo and Bolton, Bibi Netanyahu, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Sunni kings, princes, emirs, sultans and the other assorted Jeffersonian democrats on the south shore of the Persian Gulf.
And lest we forget, the never-Trumpers and neocons in exile nursing their bruised egos, whose idea of sweet revenge is a U.S. return to the Mideast in a war with Iran, which then brings an end to the Trump presidency.
If there is any war of any kind it will not include troops being at the mercy of IEDs or holding territory. Their job will be to keep international commerce flowing safely through the straits of Hormuz. That means breaking things the Iranians can use to threaten that commerce. If the Iranians react badly to that by firing missiles at other countries, it means using air power and our own capabilities to break the things they use to do that (a much more destructive...and dramatic...outcome).
Donald Trump will not engage in regime change, or invasions, or nation building. Those things dont work and are in fact destructive not constructive. What is happening now is preparation for the possibility that Iran will attempt to disrupt international commerce in a very big way, and the further possibility that it may attempt - as its regional power diminishes from its losses in Syria and Iraq - to create a larger conflagration by attacking Gulf States, Saudi Arabia or even Israel. Trump is not going to pull a Bush or a Clinton.
I don't think he would either, but I am long past the point of trusting anyone.
The last public figure who criticized "regime change" and "nation building" was a retarded baboon running for president in 2000. Look where that got us.
And we happen to have our OWN domestic insurgency going on right now... A political party that just tried a coup on our lawfully-elected President, and who is intent on subverting and bringing us down.
Clean house here first and foremost.
Remember Dhimmi Carter and the Hostage Crisis?
Remember Omoeba sending them billions of US dollars in cash?
Remember John Kerry marrying off one of his daughters to one of their high-up muckety-mucks?
Nobody wants a war - but if one becomes necessary, we have a President who will fight to win....something we haven’t seen since WWII...
No offense, but I can’t read that without any paragraph breaks.
“What would such a war mean for the United States?”
A good excuse to get rid of expired munitions?
Not me. The USA is still bogged down financially in all those wars started back in the 1990’s. NO. Not at this time.
Me neither. It becomes a big grey block of salt & pepper crumbs. Overwhelming. My right eye let’s me drive, but won’t help me to read anymore.
Didn’t FR used to have a “like” button?
As always, anyone who attacks us or our important interests needs to be hit back.
Any crazy neighbor of mine who threatens to kill me is in danger of preemptive attack at law first.
There is no world cop, so a nation who threatens with missiles, nukes, and annihilation needs to be dealt with.
Buchanan doesn’t want war. Neither do I. But he advocates blindness. I advocate reality.
Neocons and anybody funded by the military industrial complex.
Our war is here.
The whole mideast isn’t worth one drop of American blood.
Keep in mind that Pat Buchanan wrote a book saying we should not have become involved in ww2 fighting the Germans.
If we use those new 6 bladed missiles to kill Iran’s leaders and military commanders the people will rise up with our support.
I petition , in writing , the President , on a regular basis , to allow for the voluntary services of older American males , who are in reasonably good shape . As I am . No answer
I have offered to enlist twice . First was in the following Sept. 11th , 2001 . Then again a few years later when they increased the allowable enlistment age a little bit . The answer both times was “ Sorry , you are too old”
Bullshit . I can drive very well , shoot straight and am not overweight . I would make a great older soldier , serving in some role , freeing up the younger ,fitter guys for the spearpoint roles . This condition / situation applies to millions of older ,fire breather Americans .
I firmly believe it is high time to make the rest of the world again realize that if they fluck with us , there will be a terrible cost to pay . It is also time to dump this limp wristed namby-pamby attitude in America , ever more dominated by pussy Millennials who are unwilling to fight for our country and go out and crush our enemies .
To all those that have served in combat , I salute you . Thank you . To the U.S. government that needs help , let the greybeards help .....it’s time.
If they do not fear the U.S. they will not respect us . Make them fear us . Deeply .
*** Donald Trump will not engage in regime change, or invasions, or nation building. ***
So, that is our 46th President, John Bolton trying to drag us into Venezuela and Iran? I don’t remember that election. Was it the same election cycle where Juan Guaido was dubbed duly elected President of Venezuela? /S
Maybe those people exist, but I am long past the point where I believe any of the bullsh!t that is peddled by our government.
Its OK not to care, but if you cared enough to post then care enough to know what you are talking about.
Heres a start:
I’m fine with this. Iran is contained now. AND, we really need to rebuild our military. The M1 Abrams, M2 Bradley, Apache and Blackhawk helicopters—all of these are 1980s technology that we’ve just been upgrading incrementally. We need some new platforms. The modern Russian T-14 Armata is impressive. While we’ve been engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, our near-peer competitors like Russia and China have caught up with their technology.
The M1 was excellent in Desert Storm, completely unmatched. The world has changed. We need to revamp our forces first.
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