Skip to comments.US tariffs on China jump
Posted on 05/09/2019 10:09:09 PM PDT by BeauBo
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This is a big deal, and Chinese markets should take it hard on the chin when they open.
Yea! Great move by President Trump!
I hope this hits Ford, Chevrolet, and others for
investing in China!
Way to GO!
We don’t need China, they need US.
While a agree with Trumps actions here. It is going to be painful for our 401k accounts. I’ve lost 25% of the gains I have made this year already this week. I have painful memories of being up 11% in October of 2018 only to be down 1% for the year in December. I hope that does not happen again. Then again, I don’t need to access my 401k until about 2023. So should be recovered by then, provided we don’t elect another obama.
The US markets will tank tomorrow too. The Chinese were testing Trump and I expect them to make a deal within a week.
I don’t know if the markets will be lower Friday or Monday, I would guess Friday. I have cash that has been waiting for a downturn on news that will turn around. I have a major cash account I have been holding for this kind of knee-jerk market reaction. I may do half Friday and half Monday.
Then again the Chinese negotiators in DC who had suspended negotiations have now agreed to meet on Friday. Who knows what will transpire now.
China says they will retaliate - but there is not $200 billion of US imports remaining to them to raise tariffs on.
This round is the end of equivalent tit for tat exchanges of tariffs.
China is running out of ammo. The next (final) round, if imposed, would be largely one sided, and would likely send Chinese markets into crisis, their economy into recession, and risk a debt and/or asset bubble and/or currency crisis.
I’d guess this round will be triggering some stops on Chinese stock markets tomorrow. Much of the industry getting these tariffs will simply be leaving China, if the tariffs stay in place.
“The US markets will tank tomorrow too.”
When news first hit the markets on Monday the Shanghai market closed down about 5.5%, and New York about 0.5%.
I expect that China will take it harder tomorrow as well.
I don’t know.
I think the Chinese should be punished for going back on the original aggreements.
Trump should enact 25% tariffs on everything as a new baseline, but should then announce they are going to 100% in a month, 200% in two months, then 500% in three months.
THEN start negotiating from there.
We do not repeal the 25% tariffs, ever.
China markets started up, went down, and went back up ...
Yuan holding steady.
Fun to watch, no idea what people are doing.
China will have to fix this. If you have cash in reserve like I do you can buy on the dip on many markets, I think Nasdaq for AAPL loss and market fear, NIKKI for Japanese fear. I don’t invest in Chinese stocks, but they will suffer the biggest losses, but will rebound when the trade agreement is reached under Trump, not Biden.
Ya’ know - I am seeing contradictory articles — what have Chinese stocks done since DT announced the 25% tariffs would go into effect?
“They could recall the US debt we have to them.”
That would mean selling the US Treasuries that they hold - which would hurt them much more than us. If they try to sell too much, too fast, their price goes down and they lose value.
If they sold all their holdings, causing a temporary condition where not enough buyers remained for the US Government to finance its debt by selling Treasuries, the Federal Exchange Bank could just buy them all. They already hold several times as much as China. China can hurt the US Treasury market in the short term, but not long term.
US Treasuries serve like their dollar-based checking and savings accounts. They hold them largely because they have to, not to keep a sort of hostage.
They need dollar-based accounts to settle shipments at their ports. We can think of that, along with a few other expenses, like their checking account.
They also need some savings account of foreign reserve (especially dollars) to spend for big ticket items and emergencies - like rescuing their currency or stock markets if they go into crisis.
China is at much greater risk of having to oversell their US Treasuries to meet their expenses, than the US is at risk from China dumping Treasuries as a weapon of sorts.
China also has, of all things, a “pig plague” to deal with, as do their Nork puppets, now, and this is not a minor deal. China literally has over 3x as many farm hogs as the US, and if most of them die...
No one cares about your precious 401k.
This is about the fight for our Republic.
Good info, thanks.
Shanghai exchange today:
*ACH! Guess you’ll have to click on “1 day” )
Changes aren’t as dramatic as the scale makes it look, but still impressive.
Believe they close for the weekend tomorrow.
The difference between 10% and 25% tariffs, is basically the difference between tightening the belt, or moving production offshore.
25% basically gets the job done. Anything much higher would just magnify the undesired cost hikes to the consumer, that will occur in the items that are slower to substitute to other suppliers, for whatever reasons.
Some percentage of the companies on the next list (the final $325 billion of exports to the USA) are already planning their move, rather than waiting to get hit flat-footed. The suddenness of this round will spook some of those waiting to see if the ax will fall on them next. Everyone’s calculations now consider it more likely that the next round could be applied.
This round is going to hit the Chinese economy hard. Its the year of the pig, and we are going to hear some squealing.
“what have Chinese stocks done since DT announced the 25% tariffs would go into effect?”
The first day (Monday) vaporized about a half trillion dollars worth of market value for them, but hope for a deal had been rising (the Government uses many methods to influence thing and sentiment, including covertly buying or selling, to manipulate others in the market).
I don’t watch the hour to hour Intra-day swings - I’ll wait for the close. I expect their markets to drop much more than ours, percentage wise. Because no kidding, this is much worse for their real economy, and for the companies listed on their exchanges.
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