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Look at the Data: Why Trump’s Insistence on a Wall Is the Right Choice for Public Safety
Townhall.com ^ | January 14, 2019 | John R. Lott Jr

Posted on 01/14/2019 8:19:41 AM PST by Kaslin

The federal government partial shutdown drags on as politicians can’t agree on what to do with illegal aliens.   Trump wants a wall to keep out “illegal immigrants … bringing with them crime, tremendous amounts of crime,” but Democrats say that a wall is immoral and unnecessary. 

The media usually describe illegal aliens in glowing terms.  Many are undoubtedly good people, but new data I have obtained show that illegal aliens as a group are not very law-abiding.  

The existing research is fatally flawed.  Most studies just examine all immigrants as a monolithic group, rather than separately studying legal and illegal immigrants.  There is a good reason to believe that people who come to America legally tend to be more law-abiding than those who do so illegally.

Other studies depend on individuals to self-report their criminal histories and even whether they are here illegally.  Illegal aliens may not want to tell a stranger that they have been in prison, fearing that their criminal record and illegal status will make them prime candidates for deportation.  

Fortunately, new research from the Crime Prevention Research Center uses newly obtained data on everyone who entered the Arizona prison system from January 1985 through June 2017. This data includes a lot of demographic information including citizenship and documentation status.   The data paint a very disturbing picture of illegal aliens, particularly younger ones.

Over the entire period, illegal aliens were more than twice as likely to be convicted of crimes than other Arizonans.  These convictions are not for illegally being here or for working.  They also served 10% longer prison sentences than did U.S. citizens. 

The relative rate that illegal aliens are committing crime depends on not only their share of prisoners, but also their share of the population.  I used Department of Homeland Security/Immigration and Naturalization Service for data up to 2012 and PEW Research Center data after that, Arizona averaged 4.8 percent of their population being illegal.  They would have to make up almost 12% of the population to have the same conviction rate as U.S. citizens.

Take murder.   During the period we studied, there were 7,948 convictions out of about 11,900 cases through June last year.  We know the citizenship of 7,905 of those convicted.  Illegal aliens killed 1,037; U.S. citizens 6,812; and legal residents 56.  Illegal aliens make up over 13.1% of the murderers, but just 4.8% of the population.

Compared to American citizens, illegal aliens are more than twice as likely to be convicted for armed robbery, child molestation, and for sexual assault.

They are nearly three times as likely to be convicted of murder and manslaughter. 

They are more than four times as likely to be convicted of a drive-by shooting, and for extortion.

They are more than five times as likely to be convicted of kidnapping. 

For smuggling, they are 16 times as likely to be convicted – no surprise, since it involves crossing the border.

If illegal aliens committed crime nationally as they do in Arizona, in 2016 they would have been responsible for over 1,000 more murders, 5,200 rapes, 8,900 robberies, 25,300 aggravated assaults, and 26,900 burglaries. 

All these numbers, detailed in a report on the Crime Prevention Research Center website, support Trump’s concerns.

Trump has differentiated legal versus illegal aliens, and it turns out for good reason.  Legal permanent resident immigrants are extremely law-abiding.   They made up only 1.5% of the prison population in 2014, while their share of the state’s population is about 3.9%. Other studies that lump legal and illegal aliens together hide the high crime rate for illegals.

Hispanics who are legally in the US are also relatively law-abiding.  Unfortunately, Hispanics get a bad reputation because they are combined with Hispanics who are illegal aliens.

Young illegal aliens who are 15 to 35 years of age may reportedly make up only about two percent of Arizona’s population, but they account for almost 8% of the state’s prison population.  After adjusting for the fact that young people commit most crime, they still commit crimes at about twice the rate on average as other young people.

As bad as these numbers are, there are two strong reasons to believe that they underestimate the problem.   Most violent crimes are never solved.   Even a third of murders in Arizona didn’t result in conviction and these were more likely to be committed by illegal immigrants.  The most likely victims of illegal aliens are other illegal aliens, and there is evidence that these victims are particularly reticent to report crimes to the police.  Illegal aliens are also 45% more likely to be gang members according to the new data, and crimes committed by gangs are less likely to be solved.

Among U.S. citizens who are criminals, a small subset keeps going in and out of prison.  That isn’t true for illegal aliens, who are deported after prison and who may not return to the United State. 24.8% of U.S. citizen convicted criminals were admitted five or more times to the Arizona Department of Corrections, but that is only true of 2.95% of illegal aliens convicted criminals.  

Given that illegal aliens show such a low recidivism rate, it is remarkable that they make up such a large share of the Arizona prison population. The only explanation for this is that a much larger share of illegal aliens are committing crimes compared to U.S. citizens. 

Trump’s insistence on a wall is the right choice for public safety.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: borderwall; crime; illegalimmigrant

1 posted on 01/14/2019 8:19:41 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Then Trump declare National Emergency. We know the communist Federal Courts would attempt to stop but Trump must ignore the court. He should instruct the DOJ to immediately check ways to stop the communists courts and now.


2 posted on 01/14/2019 8:29:17 AM PST by Logical me
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To: Logical me

It’s beyond out of control in Ca
Fortunately HELL A a shithole plac with losers who pollute the world
Are taking the brunt of it
NORCAL is affected but here Mexicans have ALOT of illegal Competition from asains and Indians ( who commit zeros crime )


3 posted on 01/14/2019 8:40:49 AM PST by Truthoverpower (The guvmint you get is the Trump winning express !)
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To: Kaslin

Because it is the right thing to do!
No wonder the DC swamp hates him! He is right and they are STUPID! Dems frolicking on P R beach with Lobbyists! Just Shameful!


4 posted on 01/14/2019 8:51:38 AM PST by buffyt (Dems: Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.Abe)
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To: Kaslin
Whereas this data supports a wall and greater border security, even if illegals committed no crimes in the US, they still should not be here illegally.

If Democrats say a wall is immoral, how immoral is it that the home countries of these illegals are so corrupt such that people feel they have to go elsewhere to have a life? Where is the outcry about corrupt Mexican, Central, and South American politicians? Where are the calls for ‘reform’?

The reality is that the left, in bed with even ‘moderate’ Democrats (if they still exist), have been counting on continued rapid demographic shifts driven by immigration (illegal and legal) from countries in which socialism and government dependency is common. They've been counting on these demographic shifts to advance and consolidate their own electability and power.

We all know this, but they still have been getting away with it. The ‘weapons’ they use to prevent enactment of sensible immigration restraints include cries of racism (e.g. Republicans are white people who want to ‘turn back the clock’ and ‘prevent the browning of America’), cries of ‘cruelty’ (e.g. these people are just looking for a better life, like all of us who came here or whose parents and grandparents came here looking for a better life - and selfish Americans just want to turn them away), and their self-serving disingenuous push for ‘diversity’.

They can't be allowed to define the narrative with these tactics.

5 posted on 01/14/2019 8:51:44 AM PST by neverevergiveup
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To: neverevergiveup

“(e.g. Republicans are white people who want to ‘turn back the clock’ and ‘prevent the browning of America’),”


I’m so sick of this “brown people” nonsense.

Most of the arrivals are as “white” as Italians or Greeks.

They make it about race,and it isn’t.

.


6 posted on 01/14/2019 8:57:04 AM PST by Mears
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To: Kaslin

I would say if we had a border wall 10 or 20 years ago America would have a much, much smaller percentage of homeless.
Its these illegals and their families that have flooded the low cost housing market. Forcing low income American citizens into the streets and underpasses.


7 posted on 01/14/2019 9:07:54 AM PST by Daniel Ramsey (Thank YOU President Trump, finally we can do what America does best, to be the best)
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To: Kaslin

Trying to overrule the president is going to be a real circus.

In 1976, Congress passed the National Emergencies Act, which permits the president to pronounce a national emergency when he considers it appropriate. The act offers no specific definition of “emergency” and allows a president to declare one entirely at his or her discretion.

By declaring a national emergency, the president avails himself of dozens of specialized laws. Some of these powers have funds he otherwise could not access.
Under current law, emergency powers lapse within a year unless the president renews them. A national emergency can be re-declared indefinitely and, in practice, is done frequently. There have been 58 pronounced under the National Emergencies Act, of which 31 are still in effect. Of those, Bill Clinton declared emergencies 17 times, George W. Bush 12, and Barack Obama 13.

And with this, it is not a matter of challenging the president’s order, it the act of challenging a law created in 1976 by congress and signed in by Former president Gerald Ford.

10 U.S.C. § 2808 - U.S. Code Title 10. Armed Forces § 2808

(a) “In the event of a declaration of war or the declaration by the President of a national emergency in accordance with the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) that requires use of the armed forces, the Secretary of Defense, without regard to any other provision of law, may undertake military construction projects, and may authorize the Secretaries of the military departments to undertake military construction projects, not otherwise authorized by law that are necessary to support such use of the armed forces. Such projects may be undertaken only within the total amount of funds that have been appropriated for military construction, including funds appropriated for family housing, that have not been obligated.”

For a liberal congress to challenge this in court when it is in direct compliance of the law is political suicide for the libs. If it gets out they are going to cut off the funds for the protection of families by trying to overturn this law, and remove the option from the president being able to protect citizens in peril, especially with only control of one house of congress, it will kill their voting base because they will not be able to assist problems for incoming and existing families due to funds depreciation at the state level. Good luck on that one, Pelosi.

rwood


8 posted on 01/14/2019 9:10:21 AM PST by Redwood71
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To: Mears
“They make it about race,and it isn’t.”

I agree entirely. If you've spent time in Southern Italy and Sicily you see Italians who make Ocasio-Cortez look like Larry Bird.

9 posted on 01/14/2019 10:35:25 AM PST by neverevergiveup
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To: neverevergiveup; wardaddy; Pelham; DiogenesLamp; Dick Bachert; GSWarrior; John S Mosby
It is not just about illegality. The fact is, those same persons who are trying to force entrance, differ profoundly from immigrants in the first century & two thirds under the Constitution, in that they do not come with respect for what the Constitution provided. Their presence under that circumstance, can only sabotage the continuity of our heritage & institutions.

An American Immigration Policy

America: Based On Experience & Reason

War On An American Future

10 posted on 01/14/2019 10:52:27 AM PST by Ohioan
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To: Kaslin

It’s fatally flawed. It only works where it’s tried. What about all those other places?


11 posted on 01/14/2019 11:35:05 AM PST by TBP (Progressives lack compassion and tolerance. Their self-aggrandizement is all that matters.)
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To: Kaslin

Pelosi has a tall wall around her house-—presumably for her safety.

MY safety is JUST as important as hers — maybe even more.

It is the limit of hypocracy to have such a wall & fight so hard against protecting Americans from the invasion of the illegals from lots of countries.


12 posted on 01/14/2019 12:34:45 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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