Posted on 11/06/2018 8:01:19 AM PST by Lazamataz
It is my birthday today, so I get to post the live thread. :)
Some places to watch:
Politico SenateReal Clear Politics
Married women vote with their brains. At least as much as men do.
UNMARRIED women tend to vote for the Perfect Husband. The provider who never leaves the toilet seat up. Mr Government!
I tend to agree with many of these points-—not knowing the final senate results in AZ, NV or MT.
*I’ve never seen anything like this. Rs take key senate races in FL, IN, TN, TX, MO, ND, and win gov races in AZ, TX, FL, GA, OH, MD, and a couple of NE states, but lose about 30 House seats.
*I have never, ever seen a national network “call” a House race while there were still over 200 congressional races still counting-—especially when some of them, like MacArthur in NJ (last I heard) had won. Some of these were races we expected to lose. It borders on election tampering a la the early Gore call in FL in 2001.
*The message is . . . there is no message. Running with Trump really helped many (Kemp, Scott, DeSantis, Blackburn, Cramer, Hawley, Braun) but didn’t help others like Renacci, or (win or lose) McSally, Heller, or Rosendale. If any eked out a victory, the margin was way too close.
*Early ballot counting worked pretty well in FL and IA. It allowed us to calculate FL pretty close, and to see that in IA, there would be no flips and that Blum would be on the bubble. In AZ, it didn’t work so well. I’m told by Richard Baris that this is because the indies in the early/absentee vote broke heavily for Enema UNTIL the caravan became an issue, then it shifted heavily . . . but not heavily enough. FYI, I had internals from the AZ campaigns, and from the get-go, McSally’s group suspected they had a problem with indies and weighted their polls a full seven point indie margin for Enema! Ducey, on the other hand, did not have that.
I would say that in the future, a combination of ballot counting AND a “good” pollster to assess the mood of the indies will be required. But did we do better than the establishment pollsters? Hell yes. By a mile. Thanks Ravi and SpeedyInTexas
*In FL, thank God for Hispanics, who in key counties like Miami-Dade gave Scott a much higher level of support than they gave Trump (just a guess, but I’d expect Trump would get that support next time).
*House members who ran away from Trump got clobbered-—Yoder, Curbelo, Comstock, Love. But several Trumpers lost too, including Jason Lewis. Pete Sessions claimed that one issue alone cost him his seat, health care. He said John McTurd’s “thumbs down” doomed him. I did not believe it at the time, but all year Richard Baris was harping on the health care failure as an issue. Many, many of the races were extremely close. Things easily could have gone the other way in FL27, for example.
*Outside of CA and NY, it still seems for the most part that voters do not want socialism close to home, but are ok with it in D.C. They rejected socialist governors like Gillum and Abrams and Garcia and Cordray. The results in WI are somewhat expected. Scott Walker has done wonders for Wisconsin, but in the process he has alienated key interest groups-—teachers, the people who did not get the Foxconn contract. It was just enough to keep him out.
*While I don’t think fraud cost us any specific race, the recurring voting issues MUST BE FIXED. Unfortunately, without the House to back him, I doubt Trump can now do anything about it. This brings me back to “lawlessness.”
When Trump first named Kris Kobach to head his vote fraud task force, several governors and secretaries of state refused to comply. Eventually, Trump and Kobach gave up and threw it to Congress, which did nothing. It is clear now that whatever the dislocations, Trump needed Jeff Sessions to enforce these investigations at the time.
Increasingly, rampant lawlessness is traceable back to Sessions’ inability or unwillingness to enforce the law against high profile people. Now, it may be too late.
We will definitely see an unending stream of demands from the whackadoodles for tax returns, papers, etc from the Administration. Impeachment of course, may be a “show” item but won’t get traction with the Trumpian senate. So we can expect absolutely nothing to get done outside of executive orders for two years.
Here is a question for you, though: “Who will have the most power in DC outside of Trump?” The answer, I think, is NOT Nancy Pelosi, but the weird fringe in her party (and I mean, even those who are more “conservative.”) Think about it: when the Rs held the Senate by a slim majority, who were the power brokers? John McTurd, Flakey, Corkscrewed, and Tom Collins. We have swept them out, one way or another. The power center in the Senate is FAR more “Trumpian” and conservative than two days ago.
But who in the House will now step into their party’s position of being able to hold up legislation and their agenda/ It could be the whackadoodles, the Maxine Waterses, the Adam Schiftys. But It could just as likely be whatever “centrists” are left who value their seats. Their demands could go a long way in stalling Congress-—because with only (as of this moment) a 10-seat lead, a mere handful of these people will have to be coddled or bribed.
Lots more to analyze. If you recall I said we’d hold the House by 5-15. I was off by 15. Not too bad, but the overall tilt was horrible. So far looks like I was right on in the Senate, with a net 4-7.
One thing I realized is that Trump beat Obama, Oprah, Taylor Swift and all the other hot shots that came to show us how influential they are not.
Dems have the gov and both houses so hold onto your guns and wallet.
There is a big difference between minority power in the House versus the Senate.
The Senate has a cloture vote, which gives the minority a strong power (although weakened since removing the 60 vote threshold). There is no equivalent power in the House; the House has a cloture rule where debate is time-boxed, and managers allocate the time for debate to their side until expired. Then they vote.
In the House, a win by one seat is as good as a win by 100, if you have party discipline. Pelosi has it, Ryan did not.
-PJ
As an intensely political woman, I’d willingly cede my right to vote if it meant we’d have better candidates elected.
Suffrage was/is a mistake.
Also, voting ought to be limited to 30-year-olds who are more mature and perhaps even to landowners who have a vested stake in outcomes.
correct on all points.
You think your ag race is bad..
look who won in Minnesota...
The woman beating cop killer supporting Ellison..
Then again, stolen votes don’t really count.
And you as well.
It’s always good to reason with folks that “get it”.
It was set up so only male land owners could vote..
it’s almost like the founders saw this coming.
I thought you worked in political circles? Or did?
If so, you should know the answer to that question: Loopholes. They don't give to a candidate. They give to a PAC. The PAC does the dirty work.
Thank you.
I have lived in Kansas for 20 years. In that period we have had 4 Republican Governors and 4 Democrat Governors. They tend to take turns.
It’s a new morning. I have lived in Kansas for 20 years, during that period, we have had 4 Republican governors and 4 Democrat governors. They tend to take turns. Yoder has been pretending to be a Republican and behaving like a Democrat. We’ll beat Davids next time. Watkins was declared the victor in KS2 during the night. Given the screwups of Sam Brownback, that’s not unreasonable.
Post of the 21st Centuty!
Thank you, Larry. It’s impossible to nail an election down perfectly but you did an amazing job of being close.
Thanks, LS. Oregon went commie.
On Franklin Graham’s tour, he told people to run for their school board. Said it’s really a couple of times a month and everyone has the time and so much at stake.
Sheesh, if Laz wants hot chicks on the thread for his birthday, so be it! I was only teasing about the guys.
And if you were gay, you do pick pretty big dudes. So you’d be the “bride” I think. ;) ;) ;)
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