[oblomov]

However, as repeated polls show a similar margin of victory, the effective margin of error is reduced.

Applying a Bayesian approach to interpreting polls is one of the insights of the political scientist Andrew Gelman. Nate Silver based the 538 methodology on Gelman’s work.

[stocksthatgoup]

You are all Deplorable! /s

[Political Junkie Too]

It's what I'm doing, too, for the past faun elections.

-PJ