Posted on 05/01/2016 8:33:04 AM PDT by Zenjitsuman
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
3 delegates to the winner of each district (subtotal 27)
30 to the winner of the state (total 57)
You’ll poke your eye out, kid.
Just spent some time at RedState reading the comments. They are having a collective nervous breakdown.
Those were the delegates for the second and third ballots if no clear winner in the primary...which Trump will be.
But this has to stop. I favor the Indiana model. At the end, the one with the most delegates wins it all at the convention. No second or third ballots UNLESS the leader drops out.
In the real world, pollsters know that we are terrible at forecasting turnout for Trump voters.
Trump voters occasionally turn out in much smaller numbers than expected and often in much larger numbers than expected. This is not exclusively a question of open v. closed primaries (Indiana is open). While I’m okay with saying Trump is more likely than not to win in Indiana, I am not okay with claiming we can put a meaningful number on his odds beyond that.
Nate, who cited Gary Freaking Johnson as his ideal presidential candidate, cited Gary Freaking Johnson as his ideal presidential candidate.
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