KS 30
ID 28
OK 17
VT 12
VA 11
TX 8
SC 8
AK 7
IA 7
OH 7
MO 7
NC 7
MS 6
Those are the differences between Trumps average position in the final polls (1-4 days before the vote) and the actual vote... in 13 of 24 states... That's significant, consistent, and Trump folks cannot seem to address it substantively at all. They simply insult the polls and me. Halfway through the Primary, and half of the states have significant drops at the last moment. Those who pay attention to numbers should see something significant here.
(He has had only 2 states with a rise of more than 2 pct at the end.)
Maine & Kansas had Cruz winning.
What does it matter when you have a second runner-up candidate who does not even placed 2nd in many states. Cruz got whipped tonight and didn’t even get 20% in a state that is a microcosm of America.... Florida.
Trump outperformed Hillary tonight. In key states. I don’t know why you think we care about inaccurate polling, the votes were cast tonight and Trump won. Ted was swept.
I noticed early on Trump usually underperformed his polls and I went from Cruz to Trump back early autumn
I think Trump polls well because he’s popular for his spunk and candor and he’s been well known a long time
Folks know him and answer pollsters....yeah that Trump guy
But in a primary those folks that are popularity voters just aren’t as motivated
But they might be in November
However they are motivated enough to give him 20 wins to 8 for Cruz
The GOP had seen record primary turnout mostly for Trump anyhow but also for Cruz which makes losing that much harder for Cruz folks who know without Trump around they’d be at 600 delegates
It’s quite a year
I’ve soured on Cruz and now see him as being willing to be used to a degree to kill Trump as evidenced by his Friday nite comments
But he’s young....he has plenty more chances
Trump you’ve only got to worry about him once or twice
But Trump has 4 wins tonight. Cruz had 0.
or New Hampshire and Massachusetts ...Maine is a total crap shoot every election
More important I think is Trump shows real strength with Republicans, Dems and Indies in the NorthEast, Penn. and the Rust Belt.
Hard to believe Cruz could even compete in any of these states in a general election Heck, Trump stole all the southern states Cruz was relying on.
Or the reason for the inconsistency of ALL of those polls is that there is a lot of cheating going on. You might consider that possibility as well.
You are correct—Trump underperforms the polls.
He will continue to do so right until we walks into the Oval Office as the next President. :-)
I appreciate your posts, and I share your frustration. I appreciate anyone doing thoughtful analysis, whether they support Cruz, Trump, or anyone else. The ad hominem attacks are getting really old.