Trump will get at least 1100 delegates. Probably closer to 1200 going forward. There will be 1050 delegates left to apportion after tonight. AZ is a winner take all state with 58 delegates on March 22. I see Trump taking AZ handily with Arpaio and Brewer endorsing him.
Trump has 619 delegates now with more to come from IL and MO. He will be close to 650 or 675 at the end of the night. NJ is a winner take all state with 51 delegates and NY has 95 delegates apportioned by votes. CA has 172 delegates with a winner take most. IMO Trump can amass the needed 1,237 before the convention.
Yeah, if Trump runs the board, he is in good shape. We’ll see how much Kasich affects the race and if there is a ceiling or not on Trump.
Trump looks to take Missouri and 6 congressional districts tonight, which is almost as good as taking Ohio in terms of his positioning.
So we are looking at lets say, 660 tonight when all is said and done.
If he really goes nuts and wins the winner-take-all States of:
Arizona (58)
Delaware (16)
Indiana (57)
Nebraska (36)
Montana (27)
New Jersey (51)
South Dakota (29)
he will have 934 delegates. That means he will need 303 delegates to clinch. There are 606 delegates left that are in contests that are not winner-take-all.
So yes, if Trump wins all of the winner-take-all States, he will need 50% of the remaining delegates.
When you look at States like New York with 95 delegates, it is assumed that he will get at least 60 for that one State. It makes the road fairly comfortable.
But, a week is an eternity in politics and anything can happen.