It would really raise $400 million?? Really??
In the real world, tax increases tend to fall short of the projected revenue because the addition of the tax changes peoples behavior and spending patterns. I would expect the same here. 3 cents per ounce times 16 ounces in a drink adds up, and people will undoubtedly drink less of these sugary drinks.
That’s 36 cents on a single tin of soda. A 500 ml bottle gets nearly a DOLLAR in tax.
When I can buy a 2 litre bottle of soda for 69 cents, do you think I will consider paying over $3 in taxes on that same bottle? Or will I just not buy soda where the tax is imposed?
Of course not. But that's the number they need to establish the new entitlements, so they get entrenched... then they will come back with more things to tax to get the amount they really need. Look for taxes on cheesesteaks and soft pretzels...
The reality is people will shop in the suburbs. Chicago has imposed all sort of taxes from cigarettes, gasoline and entertainment txes. The result gas stations closed, movie theaters moved to the suburbs and cigarette purchases decreased because smokers go to buy in DuPage and surrounding counties including
going to Indiana.