Posted on 03/06/2016 8:37:46 AM PST by SoConPubbie
One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.
When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn't clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.
If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP's initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote. The darker the county, the higher the vote percentage. Cruz's map gets darker. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's get lighter -- the latter, dramatically so.
Another way of looking at it is the percentage-point shift between the final percentage in each county and the percentage from the early totals. Cruz's map is all blue, all increased. Rubio's is not.
One more way of looking at it, showing the shifts more clearly still. Anything above the line means an improvement between the final or day-of percent and the absentee totals.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Problem with Cruz is he loses the south like he has. How can he beat Hillary? He can’t win the presidency with 6 states. I hope you know that.
Yes they are. I am.
But there’s so much to go negative on. Cruz is a walking bag of negatives. :-)
I agree that Rubio staying in til after FL is not a bad thing.
Noted. Thank you.
All these media headlines about the Cruz surge pretty much answers who’s the establishment man now doesnt it.
I think Trump’s Stupid Thursday helped make Saturday a Super Cruzday.
They are all fairly close to each other. My only point was that every place seems to have slightly different numbers. Not everyone on here is hostile or spoiling for a fight. Peace.
Thanks ChesterBelloc, I appreciate the note.
Sorry.
D1.
Actually, it is the delegates that matter, and Cruz got 15 more than Trump yesterday. Also, the huge gap between the absentee and Election Day votes could portend a significant shift in the race. We will have to see how Tuesday turns out to see.
Only because he had a double-digit lead in the absentee ballots. He lost among those who voted yesterday.
Trump does not have 400 delegates yet.
He will after today. He’ll get the un allocated ones from LA and Puerto Rico should give him 2-3.
BREAKING: Marco Rubio’s huge surge in Election Day voting in Puerto Rico
Massive win! 74% and takes all 23 delegates! Shakes up the race, Trump and Cruz campaigns in ruins!
/s
He won't get any from PR - Rubio gets them all because he is over 50%. And there are not 18 unallocated delegates from LA - it looks like Trump will get 9 more from LA and Cruz will get 2 more. Even giving Trump another 9 delegates (giving him 391), that means Trump has 31% of the delegates he needs, with 37% of the delegates now awarded. So he needs to get 54% of the remaining 1566 delegates to win the nomination outright.
Um, Five Thirty Eight has him without the extra 9 at 107% of where he needs to be, Cruz at 67%.
But with winner take all, the percentages go out the window.
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