If it even a contest in the Big Apple, the upstate could win it when considering how the union voters seem to be breaking for Trump. The revelations of Ford, Nabisco and Carrier have them in fear of their job futures.
The Upstate voters won’t be able to take the vote from the City voters - there just aren’t enough of them.
The state has a population of about 19 million, about 1/2 live in the City.. Of that 19 million, 6 million are black or Hispanic.
There may be some unions that turn on Hillary, but I’d be surprised if the majority did.