Posted on 01/29/2016 10:43:08 PM PST by drewh
Even before Thursday night's Fox News debate, there was talk that Cruz might have "peaked too early" in Iowa. Cruz narrowly led the Donald in the typically very accurate and influential Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released on January 13.
But since then the polling has shown slippage for Cruz, generally attributed to a combo attack from Trump on Cruz's Canadian birth and from the Branstad family (Terry, the six-term governor, and son Eric, the ethanol lobbyist) on his opposition to special treatment of the corn-based alternative fuel by the federal government. Even more ominously, third-place candidate Marco Rubio, the favorite of both the Republican Establishment and of many conservative Evangelical leaders, was beginning to creep up on Cruz in Iowa polls amid a major spending spree on TV ads by the Floridian.
Then came Thursday night's debates, where Cruz was almost universally deemed the worst performer and perhaps (depending on your assessment of the impact of Trump's absence) the big loser. Two particularly damaging moments were his trapped look when confronted with videos of his past statements seeming to support legalization of undocumented immigrants, and a shot of Terry Branstad chortling as Cruz struggled to explain his position on ethanol. And it didn't help the nerves of Team Cruz that Frank Luntz's post-debate focus-group report for Fox News was practically a Rubio rally
If the debate does move caucusgoers, it may not be reflected in late polls (e.g., the final Register-Bloomberg poll that will be released Saturday night) that were in the field before the event. More likely, the caucuses will remain a test of the turnout strategies of Trump, with his effort to expand participation deep into marginal voting segments, and Cruz, with his state-of-the-art organization focused on the most likely caucusgoers.
If Cruz wins, the debate stumble will be forgotten instantly. If he finishes second, and particularly a weak second, chins will be stroked and lost opportunities will be weighed. And if he somehow finishes behind Rubio, his candidacy is in very big trouble. Any way you look at it, it's been a long, strange trip for a freshman U.S. senator who would finish dead last in a poll of his colleagues.
Ted Cruz called for abolishing the Ethanol Mandate. Now, that wasn't real popular in Iowa, where the Governor's Son is a lobbyist for Ethanol.
Immediately, the Governor was calling for Cruz's head on a pike (well not quite), but campaigning heavily against Cruz.
Now, the Donald said he'd keep the mandate and the EPA.
Like I said, that is the one agency which has fought hardest to bring the energy industry to a standstill, dangnear killed coal, caused the closure of coal fired plants with serial changes in emissions and other standards which cost billions in refits which were never enough for the next change in the rules.
That same agency fought hydraulic fracturing in oil and gas wells tooth and nail, but failed to show that the 80 year old process does any damage to near surface water.
Then, the EPA 'gave' a million acres of Wyoming to the Wind River Indian Tribe, an area including a lot of private property, but also the test wells where the EPA was supposedly going to prove how bad fraccing was. (They can't do that, as it changes the boundaries of a state and that has to be done by Congress--but that didn't stop them from trying.)
They polluted the Animas River with mine waste, and have declared they have dominion over so much as an 'intermittent wetland'--something the rest of us know of as a mud puddle. If they decide to prosecute you for filling one in without a permit, EIS, etc. they can.
They have declared CO2 a pollutant and that they have power to control emissions thereof.
What's not to like?
Of all the agencies which stand squarely in the way of any industrial recovery, the sort of thing that might make America great again, the EPA is the standard bearer.
Now, either the Donald is going to keep them, or he is going to have an environment where the economy can recover.
Either way, he can't do both.
Ergo, he is lying to someone, and we aren't past Iowa.
Whatta deal!
Yeah, the ethenol thing pissed me off. Trump is ignorant on this issue and will see the light when presented with the facts. He hates waste.
“Started with Beck, IMHO.”
The timing matches.
LOL
We’re a tough crowd.
” If Ted Cruz had suspended his run, and fully endorsed Trump say three weeks ago, heâd be a future president, or a supreme court justice, his choice, and it would have been absolutely in the bag... a sure thing. That he stuck it out tells me he plays checkers, not chess. “
Wel said and couldn’t agree more . No way in hell Cruz could win this time around . It’s Trump or whoever the Rats end up with .
Sorry, we've been sold down the river before the first caucus. It only gets more intense from here.
Except Cruz's shaming mailer. That will live in political infamy.
Trump is ignorant on ethanol/subsidies.
Cruz needs a time travel device to go back in time to prevent the evil Trump Lord from stealing his mojo.
Like going back to when was a baby and Cruz works as a butler in the house and secretly feeds baby Trump canadian bacon. And plays non stop ice hockey games on tv.
Or goes further back in time to arrange by design baby Donald to be born unexpectedly in Canada.
Not only has Cruz proved he plays checkers, not chess, but with the incredibly dumb move by his campaign intimidating and shaming Iowa voters, he has moved from checkers to mud wrestling. OVer 500 FReepers have already commented here and almost all very negative. Cruz is toast in Iowa, and perhaps everywhere now.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3390550/posts
I love how Freeping Trumpeteers tout the greatness a liberal mag as long as it’s attacking a Trump rival.
They always downplay these rags when taking down a rival Conservative. We’re not going to win the presidency when we shoot down our own. I wish there was this much hate against Bernie.
Frank Luntz’s post-debate focus-group report for Fox News was practically a Rubio rally.
Faux News is totally in the tank for open-borders at the command of Boss Murdoch. Luntz's group is hand picked to get the results they want.
I’ll pay a little more for a renewable fuel because it means less funding of middle eastern terrorists. Ted is probably is getting some donations from big oil down in Texas so I can see why he is for more oil. Money talks.
LOL, wut? His ethanol answer was amazing. It was perfectly articulate, full of truth about free-market principles and deeply rooted in the all-important goal of shrinking government.
If Cruz doesn’t make it, he’ll endorse Rubio. Rubio is a depressing candidate - most obviously because of his willingness to embrace the establishment on the issue of immigration - but when the alternative is the full-spectrum Progressive-Statist-Crony Capitalist Trump, Rubio becomes the necessary choice.
If which point, those who still care about liberty will have to focus on getting more libertarian constitutionalist types in Congress.
Weather is looking just fine! Iowans are used to snowstorms, no need to worry.
I agree completely that Cruz’s fall started with Glenn Beck and he has not recovered. Beck is a lunatic.
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