Wasn’t there a 1988 scenario like this that would have also elected Dukakis?
I scanned quickly through the data.
Bush won California, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (imagine that happening today!) by relatively small margins, but that's only 116 electoral votes.
It looks like Dukakis needed several million more votes and about five more states than Romney needed.
I'll guess that most presidential elections could have been calculated with a different winner with a fairly small change in the popular vote.
My main point was that most people don't realize that Romney lost by just 3.9%, and that he did significantly better than McCain did.