Cruz will do a little better than an establishment candidate, but he doesn't have the magnetism to win over the voters in places like NY and PA. He might get over the hump, but barely, the margin of error is slim. He basically gets the same states that Romney wanted to win, but couldn't quite get because people didn't show up. We'd show up.
Trump wins in a landslide. Maybe he doesn't get California, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and all of the liberal states. But he gets back the purple states (Ohio, Virginia, NH), all the red ones, and a significant number of the formerly solid blue ones (Wisconsin, NY, PA, IL). Maybe he wins them all, who knows? But it's a landslide.
Thanks, I’ve thought long and hard over this. Earlier this year, even before Trump, I was posting how the path to victory is the WHITE VOTE, as opposed to trying to pander to enough minorities to put together some kind of coalition to win. It’s still on my “About” page.
The 2014 elections in Texas convinced me of that. The Republicans here did not give a crap about pandering to minorities. Our now Lt. Governor, Dan Patrick, ran ads in the Primary calling Illegal Immigration an invasion, and (unlike Romney with his ‘self-deportation’ plan) STOOD BY IT against the Democrats.
The results: Republicans won 75% of the White vote and still 40-45% of the Hispanic vote (seems that they weren’t too hot on this invasion either). That gave Republicans 20 POINT VICTORIES, all of them, in the year that the Democrats had PROMISED that Texas would turn purple. Same with every other state in the South.
Get anywhere near those percentages of White votes in states that do have a huge Hispanic populations and it is GAME OVER for the Democrats. I’m convinced they know that too...which is why they are desperately trying to stop Trump...even going as far as not attacking Cruz, for the time being, until Trump is dispatched.