Cruz is actually leading RCP average in Iowa. If he wins in Iowa he generates the headlines and even more momentum. We will see I guess. Not too long to good now.
As for head to heads with Hilary Clinton, Cruz is only losing to Hilary Clinton by 3 points in the NBC poll which is well within the margin of error, and is TIED with Hilary Clinton in the Fox News poll.
Trump on the other hand is losing by a huge 10 points in the NBC and 11 points in the Fox News poll. Quite a bit of difference.
You are right about one thing, we will see. But I don’t put much stock in caucuses. I’ve been saying Iowa is overblown for about 30 years now, so I’m not just saying this because of the current poll. NH is also overblown, but at least it’s a real primary.