Replies

You're looking at this the wrong way. FOLLOW THE LEAD. That's all that matters. Trump's goal is to win delegates. So, in this poll he had a lead of 12 over Carson, now a lead of 9 over Fiorina---that's MOE variation. You could say, his lead really didn't change.

What did change is that the #2 competitor dropped from 19 to 15---on her way back to 10.

Try running a hypothetical primary on this and who wins, big? Trump. But try running 10 hypothetical primaries, and it's all over-Trump wins big. Because The way many of these states are structured, the overall winner wins x% of delegates, but then the person who carries each county wins delegates for that county. So, disproportionately, while a Fiorina might win an urban area, Trump would still not only win the state delegates but the large majority of county delegates as well.

But it's worse for all the rest: NO ONE other than Trump has a lead in any state except Carly in NH, Walker in WI, and Kasich in OH. Trump is second in all those states and would therefore get a % of delegates everywhere he is second. But Walker doesn't even exist in NH, Kasich doesn't even exist in SC, and so on. So out of 10 early primaries (and I'm just making up the numbers to give an idea of proportions), here's what could happen if Trump won 7 states, came in second in 3 (I'll do primary states, not caucuses which are a little more convoluted, and only New Hampsire is proportional:

1. NH: Fiorina wins NH, gets maybe 15. Trump at second gets 5. Kasich nothing, Walker nothing.

2. SC, Trump wins (50) and now leads 55-15 over Fiorina. Nobody else has anything.

3. Alabama is fifth in line, but the third primary state: Trump wins easily (50) and now increases his lead to 105-15. Nobody else gets anything.

4. Next up is Alaska. I have no idea, and haven't seen a poll, but say it's ANYBODY but Trump or Fiorina, say, Carson. Now it's Trump 105, Carson 28, Fiorina 15.

5. Super Tuesday: this is where Trump takes over, as it is disporportionately laden with states AR, TN, NC, GA, where Trump has a very big lead. Even in proportional states here, Trump would win most. But assume Rubio wins one or two, Walker wins one: now they have a handful of delegates in a group with Fiorina, Cruz, and Carson . . . while Trump now has over 500 and is halfway to the nomination.

I am convinced Trump has been playing the delegate #s from day one and CLEARLY (better than most) understands how the game is played. The delegate game demands you play on a national stage. No one, other than Trump, has really been able to do this.