Overly optimistic projections. I'll believe it when I see it. More than five years ago in 2009, my liberal brother-in-law argued with me at a family gathering that there would be no more gasoline powered cars within five years, that electric vehicles would take over and be everywhere. I told him to put his money where his mouth was, and made a $100 bet on it. Five years passed, and he welshed on the bet, claiming dementia. I should have put the bet in writing. He's lost money on investments in solar panels and other so-called sure things.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Fair enough. But its probably a good idea to keep an weather eye on worldwide electric car production.
A study has found that while the overall proportion of electric cars on the road remains small, the segment is showing massive growth over time.
The Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research (ZSW) in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, has collated sales volumes from electric automakers around the world, finding that more than 400,000 zero emissions vehicles were sold in the year up to the beginning of 2014.
Thats double the 200,000 that were sold the previous year, which, in turn, is double the 100,000 cars sold up to 2012. The study suggests that while this kind of exponential growth is likely unsustainable, by 2016 there will be more than one million electric cars on the road worldwide.
My liberal acquaintances and relatives were not so overly optimistic. They were just hoping we would make steady progress in reducing our need for oil from our enemies. Price per solar peak watt has been dropping steadily, and now they are saying that price will be competitive with coal and gas costs for electrical plants in 5 years. Frankly I hope they are right. We need to preserve as much oil as possible for all the other important products made from it.