Skip to comments.Why Jeb Bush is Likely to Win the Republican Nomination
Posted on 02/17/2015 7:52:22 AM PST by pinochet
I need to mention a fact that many freepers will find painful and upsetting. In the 20th Century, Country Club Republicans had greater influence in selecting Republican nominees for President, than grassroots Republicans. There are only 2 notable exceptions when the establishment candidate did not win - 1964 and 1980.
In 1964, the Republican establishment was deeply divided. Three Republican candidates from extremely wealthy, Old Money, WASP families were on the ballot. They were Governor Nelson Rockefeller from New York, Governor William Scranton from Pennsylvania, and former Senator Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. from Massachusetts. Lodge did not formally enter the race for President, but his supporters put him on the ballot as a write-in candidate probably with his covert support, in an effort to stop Rockefeller. The division in the Republican establishment created an opportunity for the anti-establishment candidate, Barry Goldwater, to snatch the nomination. Many members of the Republican establishment were outraged by Goldwater's nomination, and they ended up supporting Democrat Lyndon Johnson in the November election.
In the case of Reagan, he developed a large number of admirers among pro-life Democrat working class Catholics and evangelical Protestants, in his 1976 run for the Republican nomination. Gerald Ford, the 1976 Republican nomination winner, was a weak pro-lifer, and his wife, Betty, was an open pro-abortion activist. It was Reagan's pro-life Republican followers who put the pro-life plank in the Republican platform in 1976. In 1980, working class pro-life Democrats, who did not usually vote in Republican primaries, registered for the Republican primary to vote for Reagan. These were the so-called Reagan Democrats. The Republican establishment candidate, George H W Bush, was defeated, but he got the VP's job.
Right now, the WASP Republican establishment has lined up behind Jeb Bush. Wealthy Republican Catholics have also lined up behind Jeb, because he is the first Catholic (although a convert from Waspish Protestantism) with the best chance to become a Republican President.
He may win the nomination but he will LOSE the election.
Jeb won’t even be the GOP-E chosen one. Jeb has to gamble on Super Tuesday and/or the possible Southern Super Tuesday. By then, it’s likely an Establishment candidate will have emerged from the earlier contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina where Bush will have been a non-player.
“I won’t vote for another Bush or Clinton, nor will I vote for anyone who isn’t willing to fight for health care (better than what this push down our throats) system is; I won’t vote for anyone who doesn’t want to block our borders (and make the illegals come in by OUR laws); I won’t vote for anyone who is against the Keystone Pipeline ( jobs for AMERICAN people);
I want a President who doesn’t bow to every dictator in the world, I want a President that will make AMERICA proud and great like it used to be and so therefore, I will vote for either Rand Paul or Tim Cruz.....”
Huh? Have you ever researched some of the things Nutball-Paul says he wants?
I have no idea who Tim Cruz is, so I have no opinion on him other than to say he isn’t likely to get many votes.
The early odds on favorite is Jeb for 2 reasons. 1st is he is extremely well connected to the beltway repubes. He’s gonna clean up on that money early and choke out the others. 2nd is he is perceived as being able to win FL easily. That is critical. There is almost no way for repubs to win white house without FL.
I love how the media told us he was the likely front-runner. They have picked their loser.
If he’s the nominee, I will not be voting for a republican presidential candidate in the election. I will only offer my middle finger to the GOPe, liberals, and the media.
If Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to win the general election without my vote.
Like Earl Warren, William Brennan, Harry Blackmun (who wrote Roe vs. Wade), David Souter, etc.
Jeb has been turning into a Democrat for a long time now. He doesn’t need my vote or money to complete his journey. It would be a waste anyhow. A Jeb primary win will mean a Hillary, or other Democrat win in the general. Maybe Jeb could be Hillary’s VP pick. He wouldn’t be any worse than Gore. ...As long as we are making picks on the least damage they will do scale, Jeb as a VP for a Democrat makes sense.
The only thing Al Sharpton ever said that made sense “stay out of da bushes!”
I recognize that your premise might be right.
Republicans are dumb and usually nominate the next “big gov’t country club” ella in line.
Me, I’m for Ted Cruz. Had his bumper sticker for 2 years. Now I’m equivocating. I can now accept either Cruz/Walker or Walker/Cruz, noone else
Excuse ME: TED Cruz, know him?????
YOUR opinion AND there is MINE!!!
Rand Paul may not be such a hot thing right now, but he has a mind of his own, for now anyways...and I do like Ted Cruz...I don’t think we could really get a person who would please everyone, but...
And the main piece of my article reply was the MEDIA doesn’t need to treat us like sheep, we do, after all, have a brain, something a lot of the people that are running our Government and of course the news media in the United States hasn’t got brains and doubt they ever will have...
Have a great day.....
Sorry. That's the only thing Jesse Jackson said that made sense.
My all-time favorite Sharpton quote was when he was running for president and was asked how to get the attention of Dem voters and he said:
"Sometimes you gotta nudge da donkey. And sometimes you gotta push da donkey and sometimes you gotta SLAP da donkey!"
I even thought of buying www.slapdadonkey.com to document stupid/funny things Democrats say but never got around to it.
Yup, Ted Cruz is an excellent choice, nutball Paul, not so much.
I voted for McCain, I voted for Romney. I WILL NOT VOTE FOR ANOTHER BUSH. PERIOD!
The conservative base will turn out in huge numbers for Cruz, especially if he is endorsed by Sarh Palin.
Oh shaddup, GOPe resident shill.
No offense but your article is full of class envy and unmerited Catholic arrogance
Even though yes organizational and money wise Bush has best chance
One could also claim Fox News Matt Drudge and WSJ editorial page have chosen last two GOP losers to a degree
They sure stopped Newt last go around
I have to disagree with your premise. Jeb has more donor support at this point, he appears to have the current nod of the gope, but he has little genuine support. His last name will work against him big time, plus his positions will gain him zero votes from most who vote in the primaries. He is neither telegenic, nor a great speaker or debator. Because of all these problems, donor support is likely to evaporate the longer he is in the race. He can easily flame out early.
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