“...Except for one fact in the story that tells against it. And that is that there were apparently some kind of negotiations going on with Syrian diplomats regarding Foley’s release. ...”
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I think you need to reread the article with a critical eye and not read anything into what you’re reading. I saw nothing about ongoing “negotiations” with Syrian diplomats. I did see where they said Syrian diplomats agreed to forward their letters to various Syrian government ministries-—that’s not indicative of any sort of “negotiations”.
ISIS is the culprit here—not the Syrian government.
“We have also been in contact with the Syrian government at a high level through both private and diplomatic channels, to appeal to them to acknowledge that they are holding Jim and then to release him so that he can return to his family.”
Wishful thinking, as it turns out, but it sure sounds like some kind of discussions were going on.
“We have obtained multiple independent reports from very credible confidential sources who have both indirect and direct access that confirm our assessment that Jim is now being held by the Syrian government.”
And it sounds like they were pretty confident of his whereabouts.
But then again, as you say, the Assad regime would never lie or manipulate or trade the life of an American journalist who had shown himself sympathetic to the “Sunni militant” side.
But I’m just a terrible cynic who thinks that the Assad people gave Foley just what he thought he wanted - a clearer glimpse of the other side.