Posted on 10/23/2013 10:01:54 PM PDT by nathanbedford
SS Obamacare has taken a hit below the waterline and is in danger of sinking. Democrat crewmembers in the Senate are beginning to abandon ship and call for a delay in implementation. On the Republican side, Senator Marco Rubio is throwing the Democrats a lifeline rather than firing more torpedoes. The question now is what is the best strategy for Tea Party conservatives?
The crisis of the website breakdown makes plain to the public that Obamacare is not ready. Hundreds of thousands of notices sent out to policyholders terminating their existing healthcare insurance and referring them to an Obamacare website which is dysfunctional, is not just generating opposition to Obamacare but will cause real human suffering among our people who find themselves without insurance and without opportunity to protect themselves from sickness with a new insurance policy. There is no reason to believe that these notices will not accelerate into the millions, spreading the misery throughout the country.
On the one hand we have a moment to enjoy schadenfreude, Obama and his Democrats getting their just desserts, a comeuppance for their stunning arrogance in forcing this misbegotten law on all of us. On the other hand we have potential but real human misery of our people to fix. Beyond that, Republicans face a public-relations trap if they do not capitulate to what is easy to anticipate, to wit, Democrat calls for delay of implementation. The public-relations trap arises not out of the facts but out of the media distortion of the facts. That this scenario will be played out in Obama's favor on Americans television screens should not be doubted by anyone who has witnessed the biased coverage of the Republican effort to defund Obamacare.
It is easy to anticipate that any move by Democrats which is acceptable to Senator Reid and President Obama will put politics over concern for the people and seek to time the delay to insulate them in the election of November 2014 from the consequences of their own arrogance and misfeasance. At the same time, Obama will try to protect the viability of Obamacare from the consequences of any delay. That is, he will be very concerned that a delay by its own terms does not cause the entire system to disintegrate. If he must choose one over the other, I believe Obama will accept election losses if he must in order to perpetuate Obamacare, after all, he is not on the ticket. The ideal solution for Obama would probably be a short-term delay to accommodate a slapdash repair of the website or, more likely, a delay past the 2014 election.
Obama will have as weapons in this battle his majority in the Senate, now weakened by the reported wavering of six Democrat Senators regarded to be vulnerable in November 2014, and a compliacent media. Their strategy will be to paint Republicans as opportunists who are causing people to suffer by denying a delay (which they had just weeks ago demanded), to make political points. Again, judging from the history of the attempt to defund Obamacare, facts will not matter because the media will shape perception to suit Obama as they did when in 41 national television news reports fixing blame for the shutdown, not a single one blamed the Democrats.
Beyond these weapons, Obama has demonstrated that he possesses a nuclear option, a purely unconstitutional power which he has arrogated unto himself to selectively enforce, fail to enforce, delay, or otherwise modify laws passed in the normal course. Obama is likely to say to the Republicans, "granted I need a delay, concededly my vulnerable senators are screaming for a delay, but I want a delay on my terms and I want it timed my way and if you do not give me my way I will act unilaterally as I have on immigration, interim appointments, and in the corporate mandate of Obamacare. I will simply declare a delay until it is expedient to continue." The media will contrive to make Obama not the villain who has caused all this disruption which deprives millions of health insurance coverage but the savior of the situation who is expanding executive power on behalf of the people, all made necessary by obstructionist Republicans.
To combat the media, Republicans should get out in front of this issue by providing a solution which either (A) by its terms brings Obamacare to destruction, or (B) at least times the delay so that it expires before, not after, the election of November 2014. While achieving either one of these two goals, conservative Republicans, indeed all Republicans, should ensure that the human misery being generated by Obamacare is ameliorated. In doing so the Republicans should make it plain to the country that they are saving the day. Finally, it is essential that the Republicans insert a poison pill which would blow up Obamacare if Obama acts unilaterally in creating delays, resumes Obamacare, or otherwise behaves unconstitutionally.
Before the Republicans can get out in front of anything, before they can work towards either solution (A) or (B) they must declare a cease-fire in their Civil War and make a real alliance which is acceptable to the Ted Cruz conservatives. Minority Leader McConnell has the official levers of power in his hands but he is perhaps willing to accommodate to Cruz in order to protect himself in the upcoming primary and election and to protect his cronies like number two Republican Senator, Rino Lamar Alexander. Minimum requirement for conservatives must be the rehabilitation of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee and the public perception of their rehabilitation. It must include a cease-fire in the war being waged by the establishment against the Tea Party. I would suggest that Mitch McConnell name Ted Cruz and/or Mike Lee as his representatives to negotiate with Harry Reid. Under no circumstances should Cruz and Lee agree to endorse any Rino Senator such as Lamar Alexander. They might have to agree to endorse Mitch McConnell but that would in practical terms amount to little more than an acknowledgment of the probability of his winning the primary.
Before negotiating, a united Republican caucus in both House and Senate should come clear about what the effect of a delay on Obamacare will be.
If the problem with Obamacare is merely a dysfunctional website, it is conceivable although not probable that a decent website could be up and running within six months. That eventuality would resume inflicting Obamacare on the public around 1 April (most April fools jokes are not funny) leaving about seven months until the election. My feeling is that the sticker shock generated by increased premiums will certainly be the main factor in a November election because it will take months after a resumption on April 1 to complete the enrollment process. Obama might be so ideologically committed to Obamacare that he is willing to sacrifice representatives and senators and make himself even more a lame duck. I think on reflection, however, he will try to get the delay past the election in order to avoid these losses and to gain time to fix Obamacare where he can.
I do not believe that the website problem can be fixed in six months, but even if it can I believe that the problems are structural rather than digital and further glitches will emerge, more fiascoes will become obvious, and the Democrats will suffer accordingly in November. Finally, it is likely that they will not be able sign up young premium payers at a rate fast enough to compensate for sick people and a death spiral will ensue. There is also the factor of work related Obamacare to consider and it is probable that those provisions will someday dump millions of heretofore insured Americans into the void of the Obamacare marketplaces. How that will fit into a delay, whether the delay in the corporate side will overlap or be contiguous with a delay in the individual mandate cannot now be known but, however it plays out, it cannot be good in November for those who love Democrats .
Most of these reasons would prompt Obama to seek a delay past the election. It is prudent to expect an enemy to do the smart thing.
Conceivably, the Republican caucus could conclude that the effect of a delay will be only to enable Obama to bring his website up to speed and resume Obamacare and sail to victory in November. This scenario discounts many problems and is unlikely to be the prevailing sentiment of the Republican caucus.
What should be the Republican position?
First, under no circumstances should they consent to a delay past the election. The people have a right to hold their representatives accountable and this business of delaying the effects of laws beyond elections by delaying their implementation past elections is contrary to the spirit of representative, democratic government.
Second, one of the main reasons for the Republicans to get out in front of this process is not only to control it, especially its timing, but to prevent Obama from acting unilaterally. It is important to take the initiative away from him and deprive him of the option to unilaterally impose a delay which advantages himself. It is desirable to attempt to take away the unconstitutional delay he has unilaterally imposed on the work related provisions of Obamacare. It might be possible to condition a delay on the incorporation of a law respecting both delays, which would be signed by Obama, and which therefore it would be more difficult (but not impossible given today's political atmosphere) for him unilaterally to abrogate, but it would be better than nothing. This might be the place for the insertion of a poison pill. For example, funding for Obamacare could be withdrawn if the executive unilaterally delays, modifies, or fails to enforce provisions of Obamacare. We must be careful in this because we get close to an endorsement of Obamacare.
It might be possible to campaign for a delay in the implementation of Obamacare but not a cessation of the enrollment process. Not only would this educate the public about the cost of Obamacare without committing the country to it, but it might be possible to insert a poison pill which says that if a death spiral would ensue based on potential enrollments, Obamacare would be suspended and could only be reactivated on act of Congress. All of these measures are probably unacceptable to Obama but they are legitimate demands to be made by a united Republican front. They are reasonable. Let Obama defend his unreasonable positions. Who knows, maybe the media will go Galt just as some vulnerable senators have suddenly become amenable to reason when confronted with the reality that cannot be spun.
The Republicans should argue to the electorate beginning right now that Obama's history of unilateral usurpation of Congress's constitutional prerogatives as catalogued above demonstrates that he cannot be trusted. That what he has once done to the American people he is liable to do again; that the people need a law, signed by Obama, to protect them from his unilateral usurpations of power; that these usurpations really hurt the people with skyrocketing premiums, skyrocketing self-pay provisions, skyrocketing cancellations, and skyrocketing cancellations. The old arguments so well advanced by Ted Cruz that Obamacare is costing jobs, converting full-time jobs into part-time jobs and punishing the economy, should be made again and but personalized this time and made by the whole Republican party. The point should be made again and again that Obama's lies are not just to be deplored in the abstract but are the cause of real harm to real people. Republicans, establishment Republicans especially, must argue that Obama is a usurper and a liar and the people need protection from him. They must understand that he is hurting them. They must understand that he has been acting as a tyrant and he must be brought under control as provided for in the Constitution.
Obama must be demonized Saul Alinsky style. This has been an imperative for the Republican Party since we looked on in dismay as John McCain stubbornly refrained from criticizing his opponent in 2008. We saw Mitt Romney behave much the same way in 2012, no doubt out of fear of criticism of racism. Barack Obama is a tyrant, the people must be brought to understand this truth, they must understand that he is dangerous and that he is harming them, that this is not merely a squabble among politicians to be ignored. This tactic obviously is repugnant to the Republican establishment because only Ted Cruz and his conservatives have found voice to tell even part of this truth. The Republican establishment must now go to war, not against the Tea Party, not against Ted Cruz and Mike Lee, but on behalf of the people they presume to represent and against the man who is causing their people so much pain.
It is the moral thing to do, and it is the political thing to do. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner should drop their habit of wasting every opportunity and get out in front because Obama certainly won't be bashful.
The funny bit is Cruz has a very good chance of sinking the RINOS on the SS Donkey.
At least on the Titanic, they had music ...
I completely agree.
Use the system to destroy the system.
Obie has Jay Z.
“NO DELAY.
It’s the law of the land. (as they call it)
Obama shut the government down in order to fend off a Republican delay.
Let him start the fines for not being able to purchase crap nobody wanted to buy anyway.”
THEY OWN IT.
That is more or less what my idea of schadenfreude is. I hope Republicans take your advice.
Putin got out in front of Obama and stopped a war. Yes, it can be done, as long as “leaders” are not programmed to surrender.
you already have Boehner and Issa wanting to bring up immigration reform next week to change the subject...they could not possibly be that stupid if they really wanted to fight Obama....so what does it mean? it means they are all working together and want the same things ...Obamacare doesn’t bother the GOP elite in the least
bookmark
I completely agree with your brilliant analysis, but sadly it is doomed to fail. That’s because you are asking GOPer Dopers to show some courage and act in an aggressive manner. But the GOP establishment only gets their blood boiling when they want to confront Ted Cruz and the Tea Party. I’ve recently been reading a few books on the Civil War. I finished reading a biography on Gen. Stonewall Jackson. The Confederate Army enjoyed success when they had cowardly generals leading the Union Army or they confronted aggressive but stupid generals whe fell for their traps. Now when I look at the GOP Establishment, I keep thinking about Gen. McClellan. He had an army of brave fighters, but he himself was a coward and always looked for excuses not to engage his troops into battle. He was so notorious that Southern Generals Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson world prepare battle plans assumming Gen. McClellan would not attack them. They had won many battle with this strategy, but one day Gen. McClellan made a surprise attack on the Virginia Army and nearly destroyed the Virginia Army, but of course he failed by not finishing them off. However, Boehner and McConnell are more cowadly than Gen. McClellan, so all hope is lost for the future of the Republican Party.
NO DELAY — we need Max screaming during as much of gayMuzzie’s term as possible. They own it. We need a very high dem body count.
Let them levy the fines...!!
CSPAN
9 AM (ET)
LIVE: IMPLEMENTATION OF HEALTH CARE LAW
12pm (ET)
LIVE: MORNING HOUR
8pm (ET)
LIVE: IMPLEMENTATION OF HEALTH CARE LAW
lets BE THERE
is the house of reps open to spectators?
seesm theyre holding a hearing tomorrow
9 AM (ET)
LIVE: IMPLEMENTATION OF HEALTH CARE LAW
12pm (ET)
LIVE: MORNING HOUR
8pm (ET)
LIVE: IMPLEMENTATION OF HEALTH CARE LAW!
Obama will personally pull the plug on the Individual Mandate for one year because to allow the congress to do so makes his delay of the Employer Mandate seem even more illegitimate. So Rubio won’t get it done.
there IS another “trap”
There are at least three different Court cases pending, which question the very authority of the “Federal Exchanges” to grant any tax credit or subsidy, or for the government to charge any penalty in Federal Exchange States.
Any “fix” at this time will try to sneak in language to FIX the points that plaintiffs have pointed out are wrong with the current law, in Court Rooms across the Country.
The irony is that for months, folks in government (even the self-blinkered apologists in the Administration who heard but refused to see) knew that SS Obamacare had struck an iceberg and was taking on water. House Republicans funded the government and offered them an honorable, face-saving escape by delaying the individual mandate fines and asking that everyone in Congress be required to join. Obama, Senate Dems, and plenty of RINO’s spat in their faces and...we are where we are.
Point: They were in front BEFORE there was Schadenfreude to enjoy!
38 States.
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