Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
Both panels MTP and stuffy stephey on abc are stacked with liberals and a lone weak rino. The drivebys are going all out for their guy.