Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Henninger: Romney's Secret Voting Bloc (Evangelicals will win Ohio for Mitt)
The Wall Street Journal ^ | 11/01/12 | Daniel Henninger

Posted on 10/31/2012 6:26:57 PM PDT by TonyInOhio

You've heard about Mitt Romney's problems with the women's vote, the black vote, the Hispanic vote, the union vote and the young Democrats vote. But there's one major voting group that's fallen off the map since the primaries.

The evangelical vote.

When Mitt Romney's 2012 candidacy was gaining traction in the primaries, the conventional wisdom instantly conveyed that the evangelical vote, skeptical of Mormonism, would sink him.

What if in Ohio next week the opposite is true? There and in other swing states—Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida—the evangelical vote is flying beneath the media's radar. It's a lot of voters not to notice. In the 2008 presidential vote, they were 30% of the vote in Ohio, 31% in Iowa and 26% in Wisconsin.

~ snip ~

Mr. Reed notes that in several opinion polls—NBC, Pew and ABC—the percentage of evangelicals claiming to support Mr. Romney has been in the mid-70s. "We estimate that in 2008 there were 350,000 evangelicals who didn't vote in Ohio," Mr. Reed says. "Obama carried the state by 260,000." If that support of 70% or more holds for Mr. Romney in Ohio, and if the share of the evangelical vote increases by a point or two, then the challenger could carry the Buckeye State.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: evangelicals; mittmentum
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-56 next last
I would add that the Evangelical vote will track very closely with the votes of church-going Catholics. I live in NW Ohio, the "Catholic Farmer" part of the state, and our Bishop and parish priest have been preaching about the HHS mandate at every Mass. I am confident that faithful Catholics will vote in large numbers against Obama because of his active promotion of abortion.
1 posted on 10/31/2012 6:26:58 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Bologna. I’ve been told here a thousand times that evangelicals would rather vote for a left-wing Muslim than a right-of-center Mormon. LOL


2 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; Perdogg; Jet Jaguar
You gents will find this most interesting. To me, it is the hidden story of this election - the missing voters of 2008 that will show up this time around. I heard an interview with John McLaughlin in September, when Mitt's fortunes were looking down, and he sounded very confident, in part, he said, because he knew these voters would turn out this time, especially in the Midwest.

As it turns out, McLaughlin is actually doing the internal polling for Mitt and Josh Mandel in Ohio, and I know he knows his stuff.

3 posted on 10/31/2012 6:32:20 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
The real reason why Obama won in 2008 is that too many Republicans stayed home, either because they did not like McCain or they did not like Palin.

This time around the Obamaites won't be able to count on conservative apathy.

They gotta worry about their own staying away from the polls.

And, significantly the Mormon card was played by the LSM and the Obama campaign and it did not make a dent.

Mainly, because Obama is SO bad.

4 posted on 10/31/2012 6:37:35 PM PDT by Slyfox
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Slyfox

I agree. I’ve seen tremendous enthusiasm this election.
Not for Romney but against Obama.


5 posted on 10/31/2012 6:39:42 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Obama is a uniter:

Evangelicals and democrat Catholics will vote for a Mormon this time. Romney will even take more of the Jewish vote in 2012.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 6:44:19 PM PDT by maica
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Well if the enthusiasm is so great and evangelicals are so pumped up about voting out Obama, why aren’t we seeing it ? Why is Rasmussen still the only poll that shows Romney winning the election and virtually every other state and national poll showing otherwise ? And why are so many Obama supporters so convinced Obama will win (you can see this on Democratic Underground, Daily Kos and other places) ? I just feel that if the Republican and conservative enthusiasm was as great as people say it is, it would be so blatantly clear Obama is winning that noone could come up with nay kind of poll at all showing Obama is winning and every hardline leftist site would already be conceding defeat.

I mean, during this time of the elections in 1980 and 1984, wasn’t it already so obvious that Reagan was gonna win by this time that his opponents’ supporters were pretty much already admitting defeat ? At the very least, this is not looking like 1980 or 1984, and based on reports I have heard about Conservative enthusiasm I thought it would already be looking like a Reagan election by now. Are the genuine conservatives and evangelicals just gearing up for a final day surprise to catch everyone off guard or something ? Where is the Conservative enthusiasm and where is the proof it is so much higher than hardline liberal enthusiasm ? It should have already been obvious to virtually every American by now.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 7:11:51 PM PDT by emax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

This Souther Baptist and deeply committed Christian is voting for Romney as are all of his family, friends and most anyone I talk to in church.


8 posted on 10/31/2012 7:19:36 PM PDT by Frapster (There you go again....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: emax

Gallup showed Romney in the lead too.


9 posted on 10/31/2012 7:21:44 PM PDT by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: emax

“Why is Rasmussen still the only poll that shows Romney winning the election and virtually every other state and national poll showing otherwise ?”

Because most of the pollsters are using the 2008 election model. No way is that going to happen in 2012.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 7:28:44 PM PDT by Parley Baer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
For those who are conflicted:

Gordon B. Hinckley, prior President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (1995-2008), said:

“We are Christians in a very real sense and that is coming to be more and more widely recognized. Once upon a time people everywhere said we are not Christians. They have come to recognize that we are, and that we have a very vital and dynamic religion based on the teachings of Jesus Christ. We, of course, accept Jesus Christ as our Leader, our King, our Savior...the dominant figure in the history of the world, the only perfect Man who ever walked the earth, the living Son of the living God. He is our Savior and our Redeemer through whose atoning sacrifice has come the opportunity of eternal life. Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints pray and worship in the name of Jesus Christ. He is the center of our faith and the head of our Church. The Book of Mormon is Another Testament of Jesus Christ and witnesses of His divinity, His life, and His Atonement.”

11 posted on 10/31/2012 7:47:50 PM PDT by CitizenM (Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: emax

Actually iirc Regan was behind in the polls up to election day when he cleaned Carter’s clock.

But to address why the Dems are so confident- I would describe it as an overdose of the kool aid. Remember these are people who fell hook, line, and sinker for a campaign that had nothing more than Hope and Change to sell as a platform. Now they are peddling the same nonsense coupled to a dismal record and consider it a brilliant campaign. I think it is a matter of delusion.


12 posted on 10/31/2012 7:50:31 PM PDT by drbuzzard (All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: emax

The thing that makes it clear that The Disaster is losing is that the only way they can concoct a lead for him is by heavily slanting the polled to the RATs. I have NEVER seen ONE poll showing him ahead where there was a reasonable split. And look at the RAT campaign it is now back to where it was in March and NO ONE believes them anymore.

BTW polls NEVER showed Reagan was winning in a landslide or winning at all.


13 posted on 10/31/2012 7:55:16 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: CitizenM

CitizenM, it would be better if you did not confuse the issues. Mitt Romney is the best choice for president because he best espouses the principles set forth in the Constitution. His affiliation with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints is another issue all together.

Christian citizens of the United States can vote for Romney with a clear conscience because, again, he and his policies most closely accord with the founding documents of our nations, especially in comparison to the current president. Mitt Romney is my choice for president.

However, when you advance the duplicitous theological statements of the late LDS president Hinckley as reasons for Christians to “feel better” about voting for Romney, you commingle badly the State and the Church, the kingdom of God’s left hand and His right. You betray either your own ignorance or your own veiled agenda. My advice in this election season is this: leave it alone. Mormons are, by their own confession and history, not Christians, no matter what their current leadership says. And that is the simple truth.

Nevertheless, I am going to vote for Romney ... not because he is a Mormon, but despite that fact.


14 posted on 10/31/2012 8:03:18 PM PDT by Belteshazzar (We are not justified by our works but by faith - De Jacob et vita beata 2 +Ambrose of Milan)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Slyfox

Every republican that I recall talking to in the 2008 election cycle either did not vote or voted for Obama because they were sick and tired of the Iraq war and the money being spent on that operation...militarily and nation building. At that time I was living in Vancouver, WA.


15 posted on 10/31/2012 8:07:00 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: drbuzzard

So basically, every poll in the few days before the election has showed the Democrat winning since the 1980 elections, regardless of who actually won. And so anyone saying Obama is winning among polls favoring Democrats by +10 are not being accurate in the slightest. True ? I sure hope so !


16 posted on 10/31/2012 8:08:31 PM PDT by emax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: emax

Your entire laundry list of questions has been answered in dozens of threads, with detailed and convincing arguments backed up by hard data.

Why not read the answers provided already? Or is the point of your questions something other than a search for answers?

Romney is winning. As things stand right now, he is looking at a 4-6 point margin of victory. There is a *small* chance, if things break perfectly for Obama, that it could be close. But this would require depressed Republican and independent turnout, coupled with extremely high Democrat turnout — the current data is strongly suggestive that neither will happen. The third scenario, a Romney blowout, is the second most likely outcome. This would require Democrat turnout to be particularly low. While still a low probability event, there is some convincing data that suggests that this is a real possibility.

As far as 1980 is concerned. I knew plenty of democrats who were even more confident than Obama supporters are now. The polls were close, and the media kept saying that the race was a tossup, and clearly expected a Carter win. They were beyond shell-shocked by the actual results.

But, I would ask again, if all of the answers you seek are already out there, why did you create this buffet of pearl-clutching questions?


17 posted on 10/31/2012 8:12:28 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (concern trolls are gonna be concerned)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: emax

Your entire laundry list of questions has been answered in dozens of threads, with detailed and convincing arguments backed up by hard data. In fact, you can hardly swing a cat around here without hitting an answer to at least one of your questions.

Why not read the answers provided already? Or is the point of your questions something other than a search for answers?

Romney is winning. As things stand right now, he is looking at a 4-6 point margin of victory. There is a *small* chance, if things break perfectly for Obama, that it could be close. But this would require depressed Republican and independent turnout, coupled with extremely high Democrat turnout — the current data is strongly suggestive that neither will happen. The third scenario, a Romney blowout, is the second most likely outcome. This would require Democrat turnout to be particularly low. While still a low probability event, there is some convincing data that suggests that this is a real possibility.

As far as 1980 is concerned. I knew plenty of democrats who were even more confident than Obama supporters are now. The polls were close, and the media kept saying that the race was a tossup, and clearly expected a Carter win. They were beyond shell-shocked by the actual results.

But, I would ask again, if all of the answers you seek are already out there, why did you create this buffet of pearl-clutching questions?


18 posted on 10/31/2012 8:15:09 PM PDT by jjsheridan5 (concern trolls are gonna be concerned)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: CitizenM
Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints pray and worship in the name of Jesus Christ. He is the center of our faith and the head of our Church. The Book of Mormon is Another Testament of Jesus Christ and witnesses of His divinity,

Hinckley was a lying cult leader and claimed to be a prophet and to speak for God, as your post shows, his cult uses their own holy book, written by the cult itself.

ALL Christian churches, Catholic, Baptist, Greek Orthodox, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian and so on, ALL agree that Mormonism is not a part of Christianity, but is an entirely made up, new, man-made religion (cult).

19 posted on 10/31/2012 8:16:44 PM PDT by ansel12 (Vote, but don't pretend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Slyfox
The real reason why Obama won in 2008 is that too many Republicans stayed home, either because they did not like McCain or they did not like Palin.

Polling done after the election made it crystal clear that Governor Palin was the asset that pulled republicans to the voting booth, McCain was a drag on the ticket.

20 posted on 10/31/2012 8:23:26 PM PDT by ansel12 (Vote, but don't pretend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-56 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson