Skip to comments.Poll: Obama still ahead in Pa., but Romney up
Posted on 10/27/2012 8:48:33 AM PDT by tsowellfan
President Obama holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll with just over nine full days of campaigning left for the Republican nominee to make a play for the state.
Obama was the choice of 49 percent of likely voters, to 43 percent who backed Romney in the survey conducted for the newspaper by a bipartisan team of pollsters.
The new numbers came out as one Republican group made a television ad buy on Friday that might signal a last-minute Romney push in Pennsylvania.
The poll's margin represents a net swing of two percentage points in Romney's favor since the last Inquirer survey, which found the president ahead 50 percent to 42 percent in the first week of October.
In the last three weeks...
(Excerpt) Read more at philly.com ...
I wouldn’t trust anything put out by the Phil. Inquirer any more than the NYT.
The Philadelphia Inquirer is a ‘DNC Newsletter’. I know, I used to live in Philadelphia.
If they are admitting to this poll it means Romney is winning 51-49 not taking the skew into account.
What are the internals? I think its probably heavily D+ oversampled.
Even with that O is only ahead by single digits in a state he carried by double digits in 2008.
I think its more of a tossup at this point.
Is Philly quite liberal?
Is Philly “quite” liberal?
No, it’s ALL liberal.
Mark Levin lived near Bill Cosby in Philly. You know the neighborhood?
I drove around “Bite Me’s” adopted home of Scranton, PA last week and the Romney yard signs were 3-1 over Obummer. Last election I hardly saw any McCain yard signs.Also, many vehicles sporting “ Don’t Tread on Me” stickers.
The actual ‘City” of Philadelphia is basically 4 large areas....
1.South Philadelphia (mostly Italians / big time old time Democrats
2. North Phila / West Phila (mostly all black)
3. Center City (upper class whites / liberal / and blacks)
4. Northeast Philadelphia (mostly all white / mostly Democrats and some Republicans)
90% of the state is probably like any rural state, but the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are probably 95% Democrat, and Philadelphia alone usually provides a 350,000 to 600,000 + vote margin alone in Democrat votes, which have to be overcome by rural or suburban Republicans.
The big counties to watch in the Philadelphia are would be:
Bucks County outside NE Philadelphia,
Delaware County and Chester County outside South Philadelphia
Montgomery County west of Philadelphia
If the Romney can win big in the above highly populated Phila suburban counties, he might have enough from the rest of the rural counties in the rest of the state to pull it through.
Turnout for Phila has to be low also.
They are factoring in the expected Philly vote fraud.
Romney can win Bucks by a solid margin this election I think. Delaware and Montgomery Counties have moved to the Dems though but I think he can down their margins quite a bit.
Jame Carville once said Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.
I don’t live in Philly but you don’t need to live there to know it is the most liberal city in a liberal State.
Let’s hope the majority of people in those suburban counties are fed up with the last 4 years.
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I assume you mean less than 125%?
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