Posted on 10/13/2012 10:51:11 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.
Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: bit.ly/RmeEen)
With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: bit.ly/SWm5YR).
The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is already under way in some form in at least 40 states.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Early voting is a liberal conduit for fraud.
I think somebody been hittin’ da happy smoke. This is the weirdest “election” BS I’ve seen so far.
The poll has a 90% credibility? That’s like a 5 or maybe 5.5 margin on error in normal circumstances. Not a healthy poll.
Oh relax. Early voting is a Republican invention - a convenience issue for people who have to work on Tuesdays (unlike libs).
States that have early voting: Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas
States that do not have early voting: Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Michigan.
As for fraud, fraud potential is greatest on election day -- when hordes of people show up all at once at thousands of polling places. When somebody votes in advance there's time to check a voter for fraud.
I learned in Poly Sci 101 back in the day that any margin of error above 5% is worthless.
“Early voting is a Republican invention”
****
Was very common in the 1800s for the similar reasons that you gave. An agrarian society, farmers infrequently came to town. Common to be able to vote for up a month prior to election day for this reason. In other words, the producers didn’t have the luxury of the moochers to vote on just one day.
These early vote numbers are starting to make me think we are watching this election being stolen before our very eyes.
10% MOE? Sample size is too small.
Yep, just went and looked at the data. They only have 361 early voters in their survey. That means that each voter moves the needle a quarter of a point.
So they found that:
213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.
Not this is data culled from their entire survey of 11,000 registered voters.
What does this mean? Jack squat. It’s not a big enough sample to be taken seriously.
We are just waiting for the death rattle.
Is it even legal to report such things?
I thought the “exit polls” couldn’t be reported until all voting locations are closed.
There is no law against reporting anything you find from a survey. Exit poll reporting is perfectly legal, but pretty dirty because it influences people.
On the other hand, if the official tallys are released by someone then it’s big prison time.
Not quite. In the past, you were supposed to have an actual reason for absentee/early voting.
This headline is pure hyperbole even if true.
Obama has 59% of 7% of total voters, or 4.13% to Romney’s 31% of 7% or 2.17%. So the huge Obama lead is less than 2%.
If the results are true...
meaningless crap...
Our job is to get out the vote. Make sure O is defeated and elect as many conservatives to the house and senate as possible. OUR COUNTRY DEPENDS ON IT.
So 10% of early voters voted for Gary Johnson, Roseanne, or some other candidate? They were motivated enough to vote early for one of those turkeys. This poll is statistical horsemanure (but it does grab headlines and will get counted in the Really Crappy Polls average).
*213 people surveyed said they voted early and for Obama.
112 people surveyed said they voted early and for Romney.
36 people surveyed said they voted early and for someone else.*
61,000 are hidden in a trunk in Cleveland along with 130,000 dead Odungophones and 4 box lunches
Only land owners could vote! Moochers were not allowed course they usually died of starvation!
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