Why Romney Will Win

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 14, 2012 | Dick Morris

[re_tail20]

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.

Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.

But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.

For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.

[PIF]

“Why Romney Will Win”

—

Previously:
“Why McCain Will Win”

and

“Why Dole Will Win”

[kearnyirish2]

“I remember BO signs everywhere, BO card tables set up with BO literature in grocery store parking lots, BO bumper stickers everywhere — and now, almost nothing.”

Same here in Hudson County NJ; lots of Dems, but none of the visible support for Obama that was around four years ago. I think some of these people will be voting Romney; our economy is in terrible shape here, and people are desperate. They are losing their homes and jobs, and can’t afford to “vote the party line” anymore.

[Right Wing Assault]

The MSM will really have to pour it on. Make sure everything Romney says, especially foreign policy, is a “gaffe.” They will continue pounding on him as worse than Bush for his gaffes and even worse than Joe Biden. Alinsky would push this hard. Make fun of your opponent.