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Romney leads 49% to 46% in poll of 1200 LIKELY voters taken 9/4 - 9/6, skewed towards Dems
American Research Group ^ | September 7th, 212 | American Research Group

Posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball

September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot

National
Likely voters Sep 4-6

Obama 46%
Romney 49%
Other/Undecided 5%

Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012

Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points Question wording: If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated)

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).

Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.

Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).

Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.

Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).

A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.

A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.



TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; romney
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Note that this poll OVERsamples Dems but still gives Myth a 3% lead. It's of 1200 likely voters. The most definitive done recently.

Definitely looks like BO is in a tailspin to me.

Hank

1 posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:41 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

already posted 7 threads below this one

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2928178/posts


2 posted on 09/07/2012 9:57:41 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

interesting


3 posted on 09/07/2012 9:58:37 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
That poll can not be true every0ne and their momma loves Obama- You are going to vote for Obama and you are gonna like see. Ha ha ha
4 posted on 09/07/2012 10:04:30 PM PDT by funfan
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

bookmark


5 posted on 09/07/2012 10:04:52 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

A D+4 sample is probably close to accurate: shifting 2 percent of the sample form D to I (which is probably a little more accurate) may give Romney another percentage point, but the difference it makes isn’t just less than the margin of error, it’s within rounding error.


6 posted on 09/07/2012 10:24:10 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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To: The_Reader_David

Rasmussen does regular party ID surveys to update his models, and his last (about a week ago) was exactly opposite: R - 38%; D - 34%

That’s a huge swing.

Hank


7 posted on 09/07/2012 10:29:50 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.

This is why there are no convention bounces (and why Nate Silver is an absolutel moron for trying to compare Romney's bounce to past convention bounces).

Obama has the country so divided and pissed off at each other there are far less swing voters available than in the past. We are heading towards a boiling point in the future.
8 posted on 09/07/2012 10:46:30 PM PDT by jb729
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

interesting with over sample of dems the margin could be even bigger. no wonder O looked so constipated


9 posted on 09/07/2012 10:50:55 PM PDT by Nifster
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Comment #10 Removed by Moderator

To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Drudge links to a poll that shows the Obamanation with a post-convention bump that puts him ahead of Romney 46-44%.


11 posted on 09/07/2012 11:21:35 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Lib-Lickers 2

bears repeating IMO ;)


12 posted on 09/07/2012 11:35:06 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: luvbach1

Reuters poll.


13 posted on 09/07/2012 11:35:58 PM PDT by p. henry
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To: jb729

In 2004, Zogby had the same aura of mystique that Nate Silver currently carries now.


14 posted on 09/07/2012 11:36:41 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: luvbach1

That’s an Internet poll


15 posted on 09/07/2012 11:46:57 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: sf4dubya

That declaration sounds very astute and all but its still the economy stupid and Obama is going down very hard.


16 posted on 09/08/2012 12:06:01 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

“Reagan democrats” are horrified at what they saw at the RAT convention.

“Martha... those people are not us...”


17 posted on 09/08/2012 12:44:10 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

If the party ID is really +4 Rep. Then R/R will win this thing going away.

I’m not convinced it is though. Especially since Rasmussen is the only one using those numbers.


18 posted on 09/08/2012 12:58:34 AM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

2008 election accuracy— they were pretty good, only slightly tipped to Obama:http://americanresearchgroup.com/ratings/2008/uspresident/


19 posted on 09/08/2012 3:24:09 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: sf4dubya

There’s hope.

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2012/09/07/news/doc5049714d6e5d8022800687.txt

We bring jobs, and O doesn’t.


20 posted on 09/08/2012 3:44:34 AM PDT by Windcatcher (Obama is a COMMUNIST and the MSM is his armband-wearing propaganda machine.)
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