Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling.
The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now.
Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and its had an impact, said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bushs presidential campaigns.
But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was raising and saving his money to ensure he wont be out-punched in the final rounds. The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Taking the polling averages used by Nate Silver in the New York Times, the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. Only 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.
Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.
By that measure, as of last Friday, he would win 8 of the 12 battlegrounds, for a total of 290 electoral votes.
Romney victories in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia leaves the Republican marooned on 248 electoral votes.
Strategists including Karl Rove have, in recent months, noted that Romneys path to victory is challenging one in terms of the electoral map.
Now, Democrats are citing the same argument to justify guarded confidence.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Excellent analysis and correct. That Obama is this desperate during the summer tells you what you need to know. Who’s paying attention to the race right now. October polls will tell the truth.
Dear Jim/John...
I’d give my next born for an edit button :)
2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV5 states to win. 5. Bobo's team has already abandoned Indiana. How many Presidents are re-elected without 10+EV states they held the first time around? What were the results of the bellwether 2010 election?
Note none of those 2010 result summaries include any of the historical beating Democrats took at the statehouse level.
- NORTH CAROLINA GOP Sen. Richard Burr cruised to re-election. Republicans picked up Democratic seat.
- FLORIDA Likely VP choice Marco Rubio coasted to Senate win for GOP. Republican Rick Scott won gubernatorial race. GOP picked up four House seats.
- VIRGINIA Republicans knocked off three Democratic House members, including Tom Perriello, whom Obama campaigned for late in the race.
- OHIO Former GOP Rep. John Kasich defeated Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland; Rob Portman won Senate seat for GOP. Five Democratic U.S. House members were ousted by Republican challengers.
Where is Obama's path to victory?
50 posted on 05/08/2012 5:44:46 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
I’m skeptical of the numbers, but I’m proceeding as if they were true. Meaning I believe that *nothing* should be taken for granted until we see Obama giving his concession speech on election night.
What matters is Rasmussen’s polling...a reliable pollster who uses only likely voters and says that party affiliation is 35% Republican, 34% Democrat and 30% Independent. You couldn’t ask for a more fair weighting.
Rasmussen says the same thing as this article. Obama leading in the swing states.
I know this is grossly oversimplified, but the bottom line is that Romney has not been striking the right chords with voters despite the bad economy. We might like his ads, his speeches...whatever. They seem to be enabling him to hold his own in the states he is winning.
What they aren’t doing is enabling him to move forward in the states he is losing.
Whatever it is, he hasn’t hit the magic combination yet.
“hes going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history.”
Here’s why: Bad economy means more folks need bailouts, and who is the bailout king? And whose fault is the bad economy?
I had some hope early on 0bama could be defeated, but now I don’t see how it could happen. If 0bama can maintain a 50% approval rating with the piss poor job he has done There is no hope.
Now I think 0bama will win every single state he won in 2008 with a shot to pick up Missouri with strong turnout in KC and STL and possibly GA, KY and WV as well.
We are not the same country as in 1980, 1990 or even 2000. The last 10 years have seena surge in third world Latin immigrants who vote Democrat ny 90%, a surge in fraudulent voters in the big cities and a huge surge in those receiving government benefits. Socialism is the new order in the USA. No Republican, let alone a Conservative, will ever be elected President again.
0bama is the new lord and master. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he skirted the Constitution yet again and won a 3rd term in 2016 with overwhelming support.
It’s over people. America has forsaken God and God in turn has forsaken us and is punishing us with 0bama. Sad thing is most people see 0bama as a blessing.
McCain won 55% of the white vote in 2008..
If Romney gets that number up to 60+%, which I think is reasonable, then all the leftist latino votes wont matter.
Obama’s White Support Is Too Low to Win
I don’t have any problem with positive thinking. That’s a fine way to approach most everything in life. I’m not from Missouri, but the proof’s in the pudding, and results are the ultimate test.
Unfortunately, in most things we’ll have to wait and see.
One issue, though, as I see it is that he should NOT allow himself to be losing ground in places like Ohio. There is no reason in the world why he should be losing ground in a place like Ohio other than that he is somehow striking the wrong chords.
Another thread today says just the opposite.
All one has to do to see these polls can’t be right is to consider the job approval. Obama is around 46/47%. That means he should take about that pct. of the vote, perhaps a couple of pts. above, but meaning he is at best even. Bush in 2004 was around 49.5 for job approval, and just had a slight advantage in swing states. Common sense tells you Obama can’t be way ahead in swing states; he’d be lucky to be even.
Another way to look at it is if the race is even now nationally, by logic the swing states that Obama won by less than 7 points last time (7 points being his margin of victory nationally) should be favoring Romney. These include Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Flipping these states would take Romney to 266, meaning he would need one more state to win. Colorado was right at around +7.0% for Obama, and Iowa was the next one in line, at around +9.0%.
So the state of the race, worst case, for Romney right now should be, easily Romney: IN, NC; probably Romney: FL, OH, VA; up for grabs: CO, IA
This would agree with the job approval numbers and national polling.
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