Posted on 05/14/2012 5:15:46 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.
Maybe Karl was right about that “turning point.”
The bombshell number, obviously, is Romney leading O by two among women. If that happens on election day, rest assured that the overall margin will be a lot wider than three points. So what's driving the sudden Mittmania? It's probably not the economy:
Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 – months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.
Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama's performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved.
Not a terrible poll for O and yet suddenly he’s fading among a key demographic. What explains the downturn? Probably an insta-backlash to his “evolution” on gay marriage:
While 25 percent say the president’s support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to support his reelection, 16 percent say his position makes them more likely to support him. Fifty-eight percent say the announcement will not affect how they vote…
Asked if they had to decide if same-sex marriage should be legal, 51 percent said no, including 81 percent of Republicans, 25 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents. Forty-two percent said yes, including 13 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents.
That 42/51 split on gay marriage is sharply lower than what Gallup found last week. Given Romney’s closing of the gender gap here, support for SSM must also be sharply lower among women (there are no crosstabs by gender) even though most women said they favor gay marriage in Gallup’s poll today. As for the 16/25 split on those who say O’s SSM shift will make them more/less likely to vote for him, that’s similar to the 13/26 split that Gallup found when it asked the same question last week. Among independents, Gallup had the split 11/23. NYT/CBS sees something similar there too:
This result probably isn’t helping him either:
On second thought, is that result helping him? Could be that some people who would otherwise support his shift on gay marriage have been turned off because he’s been so transparently cynical and opportunistic about it. But since he’s losing votes on this issue on balance, I’m thinking maybe the opposite is true — maybe some in his base, like black evangelicals, are inclined to let him slide for taking a position they find immoral precisely because they don’t think he’s embraced it on principle.
The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week. If it does hold up for a few more weeks, Romney’s going to be sorely tempted to start spending some time on it on the stump even at the expense of his “economy, economy, economy” message. But maybe he doesn’t need to; such was the media attention to Obama’s “evolution” that everyone’s already heard about it, which means all he really needs to do is nudge voters on it now and then as a reminder.
“Registered Voters”
Now poll “likely voters” and see Romney’s four point bump
If I read it correctly,weekend poll some adults and barry is losing yikes
The real Romney margin is closer to 8-12 points which is why Obama has become obsessed with making homosexuals happy.
From Mike Flynn (Breitbart)
I expect the media to be in a surly mood tonight. After months of manufactured “GOP War on Women” silliness, a new CBS/NYT poll (!) finds Romney leading Obama 46-44% among woman voters. Mind you, that isn’t GOP woman or even independent women, but ALL women voters.
More importantly, today’s poll finds a notable shift among women in just the last month. In April, Obama was leading Romney by 6% among women. No other group saw an 8 point shift in their support.
Turns out women’s top concern is the same as men’s: The Economy. All the contrived outrage about contraceptives and women’s health can’t mask the fact that 73% of voters listed either the economy or the federal deficit as their number on issue.
Looks like its going to be a long, hot summer for Team Obama.
Well I guess I should be happy that obozo is losing.
I suppose
I think
I surmise
I am started to believe now that Obama knew he was going to lose and didn’t want to lose on his horrible record as prez so he came out for gay marriage so he could claim he lost becuase of his “courageous” stand, and because those who voted against him are bigots. He really doesn’t have the race card anymore so he is going to pull the sexual orientation card.
Its all theatre all the time with Obama. What a pathetic “man.”
Wow, what a stressful week.
Sounds like another golfing vacation at Martha’s Vineyard is needed!
Looks like America is REALLY not all that ready to follow Homo-Bama down his anal-lube rainbow.
Good news. Just wish the GOP had put up some decent opposition candidate I could enjoy supporting and rallying around, who could take advantage of all this. It really tends to take the spark out of such good reports, when I also pretty much loathe its beneficiary.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and state that for awhile I’ve had a nagging feeling about this gay marriage thing. It seems to me that there are about 5-10 times more gay men than gay women. This agenda seems to be more of a male generated demand for equality of marriage between two persons of the same gender.
I know there are women who are lesbians, but not nearly as many as the men. For some time now I have had a feeling that this agenda is inherently misogynistic. Why are these men so insistent in demanding that they have a “right” to marriage? Why is not a civil union sufficient? Forever, and as long as civilization has been around, a man married a woman, and there arose the idea of the bride and groom. Society has developed all sorts of traditions related to this very important institution which is based on natural law - that when men and women get together, children are the consequence. This is the reason for the ceremony uniting one man and one woman.
You can go into the deepest depths of the Amazon rain forest and find indiginous tribes of Indians who have ceremonial rites for declaring a man and a woman to be committed to one another. The woman leaves her parents’ home and moves into her husband’s hut. Similar situations occur in the jungle forests of Indonesia. This is why it is a natural law. It’s not difficult to understand. It is not necessarily a Judeo/Christian concept either, but simply common sense.
This subject is so idiotic that I have a hard time taking it seriously - unfortunately other folos are ramming it down our throats.
Like every poll, I would like to know the D/R/I breakdown of these numbers.
But I am pleased to see the pro-sodomy crowd to be MUCH smaller than what Gallup purported last week.
I do pray Obama’s celebration of sodomy is his electoral undoing.
I know I should be happy that Obozo is losing.
RE: Like every poll, I would like to know the D/R/I breakdown of these numbers.
It says very clearly in the first sentence: 36D/30R/34I,
Those figures are crap. It should be a 2 point advantage for the GOP (as Ras has it), or at least even... Do that, and Romney is up another 4 or 5 points
This is what I hope happens in the fall.
Obama losts 49 states and by 8 points. The black vote is split 65% Dem and 35% Rep.
The hispanic vote is 60% Rep and 40% dem.
The homosexual agenda will be set back 20 years and the next democratic presidential candidate will never even mention the words “gay marriage”.
Now Obama’s losing the “registered voter” polls, which historically have overstated Democrats actual strength by 2-6 points!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.