Gingrich's my guy, now that Santorum has dropped out, but any given GOP candidate will crush Obama, given that in 2008, he outspent McCain 3 to 1 and only beat him by 6% in the popular vote. The GOP nominee will probably beat Obama in campaign fund-raising this year, because of the defection of former Obama supporters who thought the guy was a moderate. Romney alone is out-raising Obama on Wall Street, and for a while, Mittens was sharing the stage with other GOP candidates who were also getting Wall Street money. An electoral vote landslide (>10% margin of victory in electoral votes) is a given - the only question is the magnitude. And that will depend on Romney choosing a solid conservative as veep.
There is the first issue. This will not work for Romney as well as it did for McCain. That is also assuming he would pick a Conservative.
” An electoral vote landslide (>10% margin of victory in electoral votes) is a given - the only question is the magnitude. And that will depend on Romney choosing a solid conservative as veep.”
I wish I had your optimism, but I don’t.
Here’s my prediction (from another thread):
Romney wins it 270 to 268 electoral votes.
Obama gets:
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
HI
IA
IL
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
NM
NV
NY
OR
PA
RI
VT
WA
WI
Romney gets the rest, including Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Without ALL of these, he loses.
Even with the numbers above, Nebraska could throw a wrench into things because their electoral votes are “split” (not winner-take-all). Suppose Obama wins the district that includes Omaha? In that case, wouldn’t it end up as a 269-269 tie? (Note, Maine also assigns electoral votes proportionally, but I expect Obama to win everything there).
Too bad the Republican legislature of Pennsylvania failed to pass legislation making PA a “proportionally-assigned electoral vote” state. If that were the case, Romney might pick up at least half of the ev’s there.
But this election isn’t going to be easy.
It’s going to be a squeaker or a blowout.
And for the “R guy”, the best he can hope for is being the squeaker....
That’s the way I see it...