Iran has 9 refineries.
Iran has improved these refineries in recent times and now import less than 20% of the gasoline they consume. Still a significant amount, but not the nearly half they did a few years back.
Posted on 12/28/2011 8:16:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Iranian naval chief Habibollah Sayyari said Wednesday that "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water."
Parisa Hafezi of Reuters reports Sayyari then topped this off by saying that while his forces could do this at any time, there was currently no need, as they control the Sea of Oman and therefore all shipping through the strait.
Iran's threats Tuesday to close the strait sent oil prices up close to 2%, but it won't last.
Oil analyst Thorbjoern bak Jensen, with Global Risk Management told Reuters, "The threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz supported the oil market yesterday, but the effect is fading today as it will probably be empty threats as they cannot stop the flow for a longer period due to the amount of U.S. hardware in the area."
It's unclear what Sayyari meant by controlling the Sea of Oman, but for its part the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet announced today that "Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolerated."
Based in Bahrain the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet fleet consists of an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group, an Amphibious Ready Group, surface combatants, submarines, maritime patrol and surveillance planes, and logistics ships.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
"Not tolerated" is a tactical bluster-blunder in this asymmetric setting, imo.
Send them a strongly worded cruise missile?
If shutting the Strait down is "not tolerated" that implies that Iran has the capability, and is allowed to have that capability.
What he's actually saying is that once Iran demonstrates belligerence, we will begin the military process of trying to play cat and mouse with a bunch of hidden anti-ship assets while the insurance companies and oil tanker lines suspend operations and send markets into a spin.
Meanwhile, we will start the political shenanigans at home with the political whirlwind in full swing with Ron Paul getting lots of "discussion" air time and Obama looking like the strong wartime President who's killing bin laden again.
We'll discuss it indeed.
Isn’t it about time for Obama to fly to Tehran and meet with Imanutjob to sign some phony treaty and then on landing in Washington wave the treaty and declare “peace in our time”?
It would be interesting. Can our drones lase targets? I also wonder if LIDAR has been used to map the area. Around here the mapping shows everything including logging and oil & gas roads in the woods. The existing local data set (2’ contours) was not done with the highest precision available.
I think we have the technology. Whether it’s been used to target everything that needs to be targeted is another story.
A threat to take out their desalination plants would make that glass of water harder to find.
For awhile.
However, with 1/3 of the worlds' export oil passing through there daily the price to Iran for such an act would be far, far more than they can bear.
Certain regime change. Loss of territory (30 mile "international zone" buffer around the area of Bandar Abbas). Destruction of ALL military capability. Seizure of oil fields to pay the bill.
Anyone remember the Carter Doctrine?
No, I don’t have a “magic plan”.
Do you disagree that attacking tankers in international waters is tantamount to an act of war? If it is an act of war, would we be justified on our own (or in concert with an ally whose shipping is attacked) to take appropriate measures?
Do you think there are any other strategic targets in Iran beyond a few guys in a cave with a missle? Or are you simply ruling out attacking anything other than guys in caves with Silkworm missiles?
Do you think harbors can be mined? Refineries disabled or destroyed? Nuclear facilities that can be threatened or attacked?
To be realistic, so many Americans including our leadership (and many on FR) have surrendered the concept of doing what is in our best interests, so I don’t have any illusions about what will happen.
When they cut off a large part of the oil supply to the world, and the enconomy, teetering on the edge, slides into full blown depression and chaos, is that not worth putting up a fight to defend? If it is, then you and I agree.
If it is not, “please let us know how that works”.
I thought Obama turned the 5th Fleet over to Iran’s control?
Obama will no doubt launch a renewed effort to get us to keep our tires inflated and tuneup our cars.
Interesting scenario - plausible. Perhaps Iran has learned how to be a good little extortionist like N. Korea....so in the end in your scenario, both Iran and Obama get what they want.
Iran has 9 refineries.
Iran has improved these refineries in recent times and now import less than 20% of the gasoline they consume. Still a significant amount, but not the nearly half they did a few years back.
If we kill enough Iranians and destroy enough Iranian property, the Iranians themselves will put a stop to the closing of the straits.
“Anybody who thumps his chest and says, “The US Navy can keep the straits open, easy,” is a fool in my estimation. Not unless they have figured out a way to find and destroy thousands of mobile missile launchers spread over thousands of square miles of craggy cliffs and ravines surrounding the straits.”
I agree, as things stand now, it cannot be done. To make that area safe for shipping, IF Iran decides to a committed COA of closing the straits, is not doable with our current forces. The Navy certainly could not do it alone...it has been too gutted.
It would take a full blown invasion of Iran to stop them. That isn’t going to happen.
However, I think Iran will play cat and mouse on a small scale, but won’t go any farther than that....unless they sense weakness (a real probability). However, even then will Iran risk bringing the entire world down on themselves? This won’t just be a problem for the U.S.
Iran has 2 approaches to closing the Strait and both are easily defeated:
1) Sink foreign vessles.
Response: As they fire on the 1st ship, we take out ALL of Iran’s anti-ship batteries.
(As long as we’re shooting....take out key nuclear sites)
2) Scuttle their own ships.
Response: Don’t allow more than 1 Iranian flagged ship in the narrows at any one time. Sink any armada enroute.
Yes, and because they knew our leadership of the time had no spine, the Iranian hostages continued to be held for about a year longer, until Reagan took office.
Do you think they fear Obama any more than Carter?
Conventional thinking. US warfleets have still not developed a defense for ACCs and other High value vessels against small craft swarms (e.g, dozens, hundreds)....
Read on down the thread for Travis McGee's info. These are not just concrete bunkers, but rather thousands of trucks, moving and scattered.
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