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Posted on 11/03/2011 12:26:21 PM PDT by neverdem
There's no telling who the Republican presidential nominee will be, even though the White House thinks it has a pretty good idea. But even if Mitt Romney squares off against Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, one factor might throw off any voter-modeling that either campaign could do ahead of time -- and wildly.
The real unknown in next year's presidential race is whether a viable third-party candidate will enter the race. It's not just the potential that Ron Paul would launch a general election bid -- even though he’s said...
--snip--
Asked how likely an Americans Elect ticket would be to cross that threshold, Democratic strategist Doug Schoen pointed out that Ross Perot did it twice -- in 1992 and 1996 -- and that polls indicate that about three in five voters are open to a third-party candidate.
Another questioner pointed out, however, that such candidacies can influence an election’s outcome by throwing it to the party that might have lost without the extra help. Schoen complained that one thing both Democratic and Republican strategists agree on now is that a third-party effort of this kind is “best saved for another day.”
It remains to be seen whether any credible politicians actually will join the effort, but it is a reminder that the contest might not be so cut-and-dried as to offer a clear-cut choice between the two parties. A third-party ticket that leans to the right has the potential to seal a second term for President Obama if it siphons off votes from the GOP ticket. And an Americans Elect ticket with a pair of moderates could drain Obama’s vote share and throw the election to the Republican. Either way, the close of the Republican primary season next year might not make predicting the outcome any easier.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
A lefty like Bloomberg heading the ticket takes votes from Obama, IMHO, especially if you pair him with a RINO like Castle from Delaware as the VP.
Sharpton/Sheehan 2012!
The Democrats don’t want a moderate RINO ticket to run. That’s their worst nightmare.
But they will happy to help another Ross Perot get on the ballot.
Don’t say that. They might win.
Snoop Dogg / Fity Cent
George Soros is the money behind Americans Elect, and he isn’t trying to sabotage the next national election to benefit the Republicans.
Doug Schoen ought to be ashamed of himself.
What bassackward thinking. This is hilarious, moderates being pulled from Obama. The Republican party is the countries moderate party.
I would agree that a leftist 3rd party would lead to a victory for the right, but I’ll not agree that a conservative 3rd party will lead to a victory for the left. Roughly 40% of America describes itself as conservative while only 20% describes itself as liberal. That means about 40% considers itself moderate.
Do the math.
And today’s RINOS are thinking about how to get that moderate 40% for themselves, after they purge the Conservative / Tea Party / Religious Right element from the Republican party.
It won’t work the way they think....
That's their (Democrats) ONLY HOPE for his Re-Election, without MASSIVE FRAUD of an un-precedented scale.
I’m part of the 99%. I’m 99% convinced all presidential elections are rigged. If Romney gets the nomination I’ll become 100%.
And 100% of the GOP candidates so describe themselves, outdoing each other on who is really Spartacus. Both parties say the other rots, unfortunately they are both right. I'm looking at independents who say plague on both your houses.
lol.
Let them split the DemonCrap vote.
A third party that leans right? Heck, we can’t even get the GOP to do that!
The conservtives are the independents these days!
I guarantee you that if Romney wins the nomination, then I’ll be voting for some 3rd party conservative. I’ll not leave the presidential slot open. I will write in if that is the only course left to me.
I do believe, though, that a conservative 3rd party that kept the conservative vote would defeat a liberal and a rino who would be splitting the lib and moderate vote with both of them claiming to be running a “centrist” campaign.
The problem is that many will vote for the GOP “just because”. The voters in this country have become zombies to the two-party system and will be hard to change in the short run.
Yes, a conservative 3rd party would have to find a way to activate and keep the conservative vote. That would be the challenge.
I would love to see it if it becomes necessary
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