Posted on 09/20/2011 2:44:58 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.
Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.
Facts of the September poll real quick: 439 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, MoE 6. August’s poll had an MoE of 4 for the Republican subsample, using mobile and landline phones.
Obviously there are other explanations for these movements from August to September, but just look:
Candidate ------------- August ---- September ----Differential
Rick Perry --------------- 29 ------------ 31 ---------------[+2]
Mitt Romney ------------ 17 ------------ 24 ---------------[+7]
Ron Paul ------------------13 ------------ 13 ---------------- [0]
Michele Bachmann ----- 10 --------------5 ---- -----------[-5]
Certainly it might just be a coincidence that a large jump in one candidate is paired with a large drop for another candidate. Half of Michele Bachmann’s prior support might have just become undecided, while a third of Mitt Romney’s present support may have jumped on board the anyone-but-Perry train.
However Romney’s shift is outside of the 95% confidence interval, and Bachmann’s is barely inside, meaning it’s rather unlikely that either is just random noise instead of a real shift. The only question is whether the real movements are linked.
It’s not inconceivable for one of the popular TEA party women to see her backers favor Romney as a second choice. When we look at the August poll with and without Sarah Palin, the removal of Palin’s 11% gives 4% to Perry, 3% to Romney, 2% to Paul, and 3% to Bachmann (obviously figures are rounded and do not sum neatly). Add in the fact that Bachmann has made harsh attacks specifically on Perry over Gardasil, and Bachmann’s supporters going anyone-but-Perry I find to be plausible.
For a while there I broke up the GOP field into three tiers: Perry/Romney, Paul/Bachmann, and the rest. However as Bachmann continues to fall below the Pauldoza line, I think she soon will be indistinguishable in the polling from the rest of the field.
Were you sniggering when then former Governor Ronald Reagan announced his candidacy for the 1980 elections on November 13, 1979?
The problem we will have with Bachman is that she will not go away quietly. She needs to follow the Reagan Rule and not trash other republicans. She has become shrill and annoying. I would take Rommney or Perry over Obama. Hewr ne mantra is, “I am the first women to win the Iwoa Straw Poll”,...SO...therefore she thinks she can become president.
The problem we will have with Bachman is that she will not go away quietly. She needs to follow the Reagan Rule and not trash other republicans. She has become shrill and annoying. I would take Rommney or Perry over Obama. Hewr ne mantra is, “I am the first women to win the Iwoa Straw Poll”,...SO...therefore she thinks she can become president.
John Edwards took his “earnings” $$$$ from lawsuits, thinking he could buy the White House — and then was picked up as VP material by John Kerry.
Gracious!
Ms. Bachmann deserves credit for trying to protect
the public from the rabid RINO, Rick Perry.
She’s still talking about Gardisil while the other candidates have moved on to the economy.
Why must Ms. Bachmann “look Gov. Perry in the eye”
while she is exposing his dirty PerryCARE for Merck?
Must she look at the RINO wanna-be Emperor?
But I tell ya what, let's give Sarah the benefit of the doubt. If she doesn't declare by then (November 13th) would you Palinites mind hanging it up? Because that is probably the last benchmark date that would make a run practical. And I even doubt that.
pathetic
Dioegenesis.... The guy who made light of our drought and fire plight here in Texas. Stay classy a.h.
I’ll “hang it up” when she says she isn’t running, just like you would if your candidate (whoever that might be) was in a similar situation. BTW, my tagline is for real.
The only way to BECOME a "professional" is to align with the Establishment. The way you STAY a "professional" is to do the Establishment's bidding regardless of who is paying you.
This is what happens when conservatives take creatures like Ed Rollins on staff, who have their own close-to-the-vest agenda, and do what these guys tell them, because they're "perfesshunal" Republicrats.
I think I agree with the PSYCHo-FREEP's post on her political ability. Bachmann's poor political ability showed when she hired Ed Rollins. He is not the cause for her poor political ability; rather, he's the result of it.
When she stopped attacking obama endlessly, she lost it.
You are stinking liar, catfish1957.
NO ONE on FR made light of anything related to the
Texas fire. The questions were:
Could Perry do more?
Apparently, asking that question is always
a problem for Open Border PerryBOTs.
It’s crap like this that’s going to get Obama re-elected. Mark my words. If Republicans keep going after/attacking Republicans, we might as well just crown michelle queen right now, cuz she’ll be there another 5 years.
Get your act together republicans, or lose this election. It’s a simple as that,
Perry did poorly in both debates. Romney is the only other viable option at this time. I don’t like either one of them, but as of today, I’m leaning Romney. I’m not going to throw my vote away, so I have to pick one of the two. Both seriously flawed. GOP leadership is a pathetic joke.
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