I'll answer your question, while avoiding the troll fools.
I don't think she would run, for the same reason, in many ways, that she would make a great President.
I think she is way too smart to run a race she cannot win. Remember, we conservatives do not elect Preisdents. Neither do the hard libs. The undecideds, the middle 16 to 19% of the voters who are not that interested in politics, they decide elections. Remember, in 1980, Reagan has less than 52% of the vote.
The middleground would not vote for Palin because she has been so vilified in the media. Very wrongly, her name is a bad joke nationally. She is the Katherine Harris of 2012. In the FL Senate race in 2006, Harris was the world's worst candidate, but she could have been perfect and not elected because she had been so vilified.
This is Palin’s present position: She is making about $12 million a year in speeches, appearances, TV work, books, etc. If she runs, that stops. She is at home when she wants to be. She is in the limelight when she wants to be, out of it when she wants to be.
If she were to run and lose, even just lose the nomination, her earning power and political power would be greatly diminished. 2008 was “McCain's loss.” 2012 would be hers.
She has no personal NEED to be president. If she can help elect someone who will follow her policies, that is enough.
She hated the 2008 campaign. I had dinner with her last year, and although she would make no commitment to 2012, she hid no feelings about the elective process and the idiocy and pain a person has to go through to run.
Finally, right now, her endorsement is the most valuable thing (other than a big Iowa win) that any R candidate could ever want.
And remember the most important rule in politics, it's better to be the kingmaker than the king.
Right now, she is the relatively quiet 2012 kingmaker. If she chooses right, she is kingmaker in 16 and 20 as well. She is way too smart to give that up.
I wish she was president. I think she is too smart to run.
Maybe you missed my last post to you. The exact opposite scenario happens, if Sarah decides not to run.
Much of America has been betting on the fact that she's going to run for president for over a year now, and Sarah is acutely aware of this. No other candidate (or potential candidate) has the depth and breadth of grass roots support that she does. It amounts to millions upon millions of people who are relying on her to answer the call. Again - she is acutely aware of this, and has been, since the end of the 2008 election.
Sarah Palin loves and respects the American people (and her staunch supporters) far too much to string their hopes along this way. She knew in 2009 that she had to quickly come to a decision on whether or not to run in 2012, because the pressure for her to run was building even then.
She would have ended all rumors and speculation about her running for president, over a year ago, if that was her decision. The fact that she still hasn't made an announcement (either way) is proof positive to me that she is definitely in.
If for some strange reason, she opted out of the race at this late date, it would ruin her credibility with even her most ardent supporters, to say nothing of everyone else.
Perhaps you don't understand the expectations that have been laid upon her. Many millions of Americans are frankly looking for her to be a revolutionary leader who slays the 100 year old beast of Socialism in this country, and helps us to restore our nation to its Founding Promise.
She has shown every indication of being that leader, and of being determined to do that job, so the potential let-down can hardly be overstated. It would be seen as one of the nation's most historic lost opportunities, and many would feel a profound loss of all hope for our future.
Believing that she could somehow go on being the right's American darling, and a political kingmaker, is absurd. Millions of backs would turn on her at once, if she abandoned what many see as a sacred trust.