I can’t seem to get this chart to post, but here’s a link for inflation adjusted corn prices from 1973-2008:
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Corn/corn_inflation_chart.htm
And then for the last 5 years (but not adjusted for inflation, I believe, and in per ton instead of per bushel):
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=corn&months=60
Also from the latter source:
Anyone have an opinion as to whether or not $8/bushel corn (in 2011 dollars) will keep, say, at least 90% of corn farming operations in the black, for the next 5 years?
Depends on the costs of diesel and fertilizer.
The costs of diesel hit farmers several ways:
1. Cost of getting inputs shipped in (fertilizer, fuel, seed, etc).
2. Costs to the farmer of shipping product out (sometimes seen in basis),
3. Costs directly to him in operating his own machinery.
Then fertilizers, especially phosphorous fertilizers, are a killer recently. Nitrogen is something you can address with crop rotations and plow-down crops. Phosphorous isn’t. The only ways you can add phosphorous is by adding rock-derived P, or adding things like bone meal, etc. Phosphorous is the gating issue in how well roots develop.
Right now, my guesstimate of the “break even” price for corn farmers is somewhere in the mid-to-high $4/bu range - like $4.50 to $4.90, depending on the costs of shipping per bushel.
Now, that ASSUMES that their crop makes test weight and they’re getting average yields. Break either of those assumptions and they’re going to take a huge hit.