PPP Poll Shows McCaskill in Dead Heat With Akin

Roll Call ^ | May 3, 2011 | Joshua Miller

[Clintonfatigued]

In a March PPP poll, 46 percent of Missouri voters approved of the Democrat’s job performance, the same number that approved of her in the survey released on Tuesday. The first-term Senator’s disapproval ticked up 2 points since March, a number within the margin of error.

But the poll didn’t bring only good news for McCaskill, who is a top GOP target next year.

In a matchup with likely Senate contender Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), the race was essentially tied, with McCaskill garnering 46 percent to 45 percent for the six-term Congressman.

The poll showed McCaskill ahead, albeit barely, of both declared Republican candidates in the Senate race. She led former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman by 3 points, a margin that is statistically insignificant, and attorney Ed Martin by a more comfortable 7 points.

[Perdogg]

This is coming from PPP which mean McCaskill is in trouble.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think that the odds are 50/50 that Akin will run. The boundries of his district have been changed. If it is safely Republican, than the TEA Party needs to get involved. We need the most conservative candidate we can get, one who isn’t overly establishment.

[Artemis Webb]

Pretty good for a guy I’ve never heard of. I believe though that the nomination is Sarah Steelmans to lose.

[Just mythoughts]

McCaskill led the Senate to resolve lord McCain was eligible to run for president.... I would love to see some well placed billboards along I70 and I44 giving her credit for making sure the Republican candidate was a NBC!!!!

[Zakeet]

Eager Seller, No Buyer Yet for McCaskill’s Plane

More than a month after reveal­ing she failed to pay per­sonal prop­erty taxes for four years on her air­plane and declar­ing she con­vinced her hus­band to “sell the damn plane,” Sen. Claire McCaskill has yet to find a buyer.

[Snip]

The senator’s approval rat­ing is still 46 per­cent, accord­ing to PPP, which con­ducts polls mostly for Democ­rats.

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My Read: The twit's in trouble with low approvals and a lingering problem. Unless the economy improves drastically, and it probably won't, she's toast.

[Clintonfatigued]

Here's a reason to be an optimist.

[bwc2221]

Only fools pay any attention to PPP polls.

[jospehm20]

Yep. She is probably 5 points back if PPP has them tied.

[Impy]

I don’t think we could go wrong with any of those candidates. If there is a primary I hope it’s cordial.

[Clintonfatigued]

If Todd Akin does run, perhaps Ed Martin should switch gears and run to succeed Akin in the House. Martin is a very strong conservative with TEA Party support and residual name ID from running in an adjacent district last year, and the district is safely Republican.

[scrabblehack]

Gov. Jay Nixon (D) vetoed the new map, but the veto has been overridden. It required some Democrat help.

Clay and Carnahan (both D) are in the same district. Akin does get some of Carnahan’s old territory in St. Louis County and a small piece of Jefferson, plus parts of St. Charles and Franklin previously in the 9th. Overall it looks to be a Republican seat.

Maybe there was a deal to vacate the seat in exchange for the override?

[AuH2ORepublican]

If Todd Akin runs for the Senate and Ed Martin decides to run in the MO-02, he’d have to move if he wants to be able to vote for himself, since he lives in the southern part of the City of St. Louis (all of which is now in the MO-01). That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’d be viewed as a carpet-bagger with no ties to the disctrict, but Martin seems to be more of an old-school, blue-collar, urban conservative, not an affluent suburban conservative like most MO-02 voters, and combined with his recent arrival to the district may place him at a disadvantage in the GOP primary. I would love to have Ed Martin in Congress, but his greatest electoral strength (outperforming Republicans in blue-collar, urban areas) would not be much of an asset in the MO-02.

I was wondering whether former state representative Sherman Parker of St. Charles County, who challenged Akin in the 2008 GOP primary, would be running for the seat again if Akin ran for the Senate, but I see that he died at age 37 in 2008: http://www.shermanparker.org/

[fieldmarshaldj]

I think Parker turned out to be a RINO, and his ill-advised attempt to take on Akin ended his political career. Alas, it was quite unfortunate for him to pass away so young.

[Clintonfatigued]

You’re probably right about Ed Martin’s blue-collar style, but he would have much higher name I.D. than anyone else and I’m sure that suburban conservative groups would have no problem with it.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Ed Martin officially switched from the Senate race to the MO-02 race: http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ed-Martin-House-Switch-Carnahan-205437-1.html?pos=hln

This means that Akin is definitely running for the Senate,

[Clintonfatigued]

My wish comes true in that regard. Ed Martin is a strong conservative with TEA Party support and name I.D. from a near-succesful run for Congress last year. Also, Todd Akin is in for the Senate and polls already show him slightly ahead of incumbent ‘Rat Clare McCaskill.

[Impy]

So, we thinking Akin is a stronger candidate than Sarah Steelman?

[Clintonfatigued]

“we thinking Akin is a stronger candidate than Sarah Steelman?”

That’s a tough call. Sarah Steelman is blamed bv her party for the election of the current Governor.