I would be surprised if there aren’t 50,000 dead as a result of this disaster. You get caught in that water, maybe you can float or swim pretty well but there’s little defense against cars and sections of buildings and kilotons of debris crashing into you.
I’m an American in Japan . 2 days ago I told my wife that I bet there were at least 25-30,000 people dead . My guess may turn out to be conservative .