Everything I’ve read says that he’s a very capable surgeon. Financially, he’ll do well no matter what. The problem will be imprisonment. Honestly, though, he shouldn’t receive any greater punishment than what is the norm for missing movement.
If you miss movement because you’ll lose your girlfriend, or because you flee to Canada, that seems much more punishable than missing movement because of a significant political issue that you took a stand on (and with bad legal advice.)
When Lakin started on this journey, I went back and looked at the half-dozen or so enlisted men (and one officer) that have been convicted at court-martial for similar offenses when they refused to deploy to George Bush's "illegal war" (or so they alleged). Generally, their punishment included confinement between 3-9 months, some punitive discharge and some forfeiture.
The one officer, Watahda(sp?) of course, skated because of the incompetence of the MJ. However, in my experience, officers generally are treated a bit more harshly when they're convicted of disciplinary offenses - like Articles 87 & 92.
I think Lakin, or any officer convicted for 87 and 92 would have seen 6-mos confinement, possible(probable) dismissal and at least some forfeiture. And, even without dismissal, eventual AdminSep a close to a certainty as you can get when convicted at GCM.