Based on that turnout, if Christine can get Republican to support her at the same rate as Coons can get Democratic support, she needs about 60-40 split among independents to pull out a close one.
Agreed, and that's why we need 70%+ indy. Beau Biden is the Attorney General, if it's close, Coons wins.
That 60/40 is definitely doable.
There are a lot of Conservative Indie tea party. They’re very motivated. They’ll be turning out. Liberals could be motivated, but Liberal Indies, Moderate Indies? Not as much.
I’d argue that the enthusiasm gap for Christine/Conservative Indies over Other Indies could be as great as if not greater than the R over D gap. Christine is an outsider candidate. One would have to think that resonates very well with Independents. I’d be more worried about carrying the Republicans at the same percentage as the Democrats.
Did Pete DuPont bring all the Castle people on board?