Posted on 10/04/2010 12:17:03 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
“NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is also garbage. Chuck Todd actually has some input as to the wording of the questions.
Even if you had a honest pollster, what about the people making the calls, are they non partisan robots?
Nobody is non partisan, whether it`s the phony Non partisan White House budget office, whatever...what a joke.”
++++++++++++++++++
Right, at the end of the day, the only (sort of) accurate poll is the election box, and it is certainly the only one that matters! That said, Ras is more accurate according to comparing their pre-polls in 2008 to the actuals:
The relative polling accuracy of Rasmussen.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
“There’s still a month to go, and our advantage is dwindling.
Never underestimate advertising - nor the power of the media.”
Right. Take nothing for granted. I agree. I don’t think our advantage is dwindling. I think we have a fundamental advantage of the truth on our side. People will vote their pocketbooks - as they (almost) always do.
Question is how hard with the RATS fall.
But agreed - work hard, hard, hard, til we cross the finish line!
“It’s up to each individual to make sure they get friends and family to the polls.”
Exactly. We’ve got an agressive GOTV in our legislative district already underway. We will be BUSY til 11/2 at midnight.
Don’t give up - Now’s the time to fight for this country!
“I hope it is +8 or better in late October so the dem base is totally depressed and don’t show up much at all. That would mean an absolute epic beat down.”
What happened to their monster rally on the Mall? They are now hoping against unemployment that they can do something to win. People will vote their pocketbooks. RATs are doomed as a result.
Still - GOTV in your LD!
Gallup generic polls over the past 10 days are showing a massive Republican advantage of 13 in a higher turnout and 18 in a lower turnout Likely Voter scenario. Maybe they’ve (finally?) tired of having Ras trump their numbers.
Wow:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
More on the Gallup generic ballots for likely voters:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2601463/posts
“People are getting a look at the Republican candidates.”
There are lots of really good Constitutional Conservatives running on the R ticket, so you must mean those *other* people running on the R ticket, hmm?
Louisiana had a special election Saturday for lieutenant governor, a minor office there, and the most conservative candidates finished in the rear of the pack. Two liberals, a Democrat and a Republican, are in the Nov. 2 runoff.
Rasmussen: Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats... This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points... have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. [after the 2009 inaugural] Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
This is good news, but it’s not time to lighten up. Keep pushing and pushing for folks to get out and vote for Conservatives! We need a 10-point lead to make up for all the vote fraud.
all we have to do is show up on election day.
Incredible that it took your post #45 to highlight the independants Rasmussen notes as 18% Republican. Seems nobody else, at least nobody discussed it prior to your post that I saw.
Agree with your analysis. Good post.
The MSM Blitz has only just begun.
Bet on that one. Unexpected improvment.
Averaging the polls is another thing I have a problem with. This makes matters even worse.
All Clear Politics etc, The phoniest of the polls throws any accuracy there may have been out the window.
And don't forget one of the worst things about polls? People hear the polls on tv/radio/print etc, and are influenced by them. So really the science of polling may have been lost with the bias media.
One other thread said this was “registered” voters, not “likely” voters.
But I thought Ras only did likely voters.
Hm.
One other thread said this was “registered” voters, not “likely” voters.Rasmussen publishes only a likely voter poll. Gallup and others publish registered voter polls until it gets close to the election, and then start publishing likely voter polls. Gallup just published their first likely voter generic ballot that actually had two different likely voter turnout models applied - "low turnout likely voter" and "high turnout likely voter". Among registered voters in Gallup's generic ballot, the GOP had a 3% advantage 46% - 43%. The high turnout model had the GOP ahead 53% - 40% (+13% GOP) while the low turnout model had the GOP ahead 56% - 38% (+18% GOP). I think Rasmussen is a more accurate pollster, and will be watching what his generic poll does in the next 3 weeks. I suspect the GOP has about a 6-8% lead among likely voters, and that is unlikely to change that much between now and election day.
“And don’t forget one of the worst things about polls? People hear the polls on tv/radio/print etc, and are influenced by them.”
Push polling is the evil propagandists best friend.
Rasmussen’s polls are going in different directions. Obama’s dissapproval is lower today than it’s been in months. The Generic Congressional Ballot is tightening today. Yet the Senate Balance of Power keeps moving towards Republicans. Don’t quite understand what’s going on in the polls.
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