[dartuser]

So why do we assume the “smart” money does the right thing on Intertrade.

What if this is the dumb money taking a position?

[Christian_Capitalist]

So why do we assume the “smart” money does the right thing on Intertrade. What if this is the dumb money taking a position?

"The Wharton School of Business has found that Intrade has a margin of error of 1-1.5%. This margin of error is approximately half that of comparable Gallup Polls which has been a benchmark of accuracy in predicting the outcome of US presidential elections for many years.... Absolute accuracy aside, Intrade seems to predict better than many others and gives a real-time snapshot of market sentiment 24/7."

Just like a poll, the Intrade Prediction Markets can only tell you what is "the mood of the market" on that given day. Right now, that Market (a market made up of self-interested bettors, regularly evaluating election news) is valuing Rand Paul's expected chance of wining at 64% -- which is great, but I hasten to add that it's definitely not the same as 100%, y'know? We still have to win this thing.

But it is good news nonetheless, because as a "a real-time snapshot of market sentiment 24/7", Intrade's margin of error is at least as low as some of the best traditional polling out there. It's encouraging.