I guess his Katrina is starting to take its toll
>> I guess his Katrina is starting to take its toll <<
Possible, but not likely — my wishes to the contrary not withstanding!
This morning’s drop in the Index is probably just a meaningless statistical blip. And since it’s actually a three-day moving average, look for the number to stay in the vicinity of -13 or -14 tomorrow morning (Saturday) and again on Sunday.
Monday morning will give us an important report to monitor. If the Index stays near the current level or falls on Monday, then we probably are into a new downward trend for the Annøited Øne’s ratings.
More likely, however, the Index will be trying early next week to move back up to its recent average value ca. -11.
Now for some basic statistics:
The Index’s average value over the 48 days since the health-takeover vote now stands at -11.13, with a standard deviation of 2.26. These calculations imply a “margin of error” of plus-or-minus 4.52.
If we round to the nearest whole number, the lesson here is that we shouldn’t get particularly excited by any Index number unless it’s higher than -7 or lower than -16 AND unless the “out-of-range” number holds for more than three days.