Posted on 05/01/2010 11:31:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
IMPORTANT: There are primaries upcoming on Tuesday May 4th in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. You can check out the leading Republican Candidates that are running in races that are on our Master List HERE.
Also worth noting is that AR, ID, KY, OR and PA (with the highest number of competitive races on our list) also have primaries in May and there is a Special Election in GA (GA-9) that is expected to be Safe R, but a huge margin of victory would send a signal.
KeyHouseRaces.com is following the primaries closely and will post the winners of each key house primary on our website the day after the primary.
Changes to the Master List since the April 16th Update:
* We have scrubbed the Master List of Key House races. Look for the RED FLAG on the left and you will see the 17 Congressional Districts where we have changed the order of the candidates, eliminated candidates that turned out to not be running or added candidates that are now running.
* We've updated the Real Clear Politics evaluations of the various races. Of our 90+ Congressional Districts that we think are in play, RCP has changed the rating of 41. A rough estimate has the Republicans with about a 3:1 advantage in these changes. In a few cases the Democrats improved their position. But in the great majority it was the Republicans looking better than they did a week ago.
* Due to the favorable changes by the folks at RCP, our "index" of the average of all the races on our list has moved from -.585 (Leans D) to -.526 (Leans D but not by much.) If the Index gets to -.499 then we will be rating our entire Master List with an average rating of "Toss Up" . If the index should get to +.500 then we would have an average rating for the list that is Leaning R. In any case changes in the ratings of the individual races will be occurring so stay tuned.
The updated May 1st version of our Master List of Key House Races is shown below.
..
| District | Dem Primary Winner | R-Seats | Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Stephanie Bell | Rick Barber | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Open D (Marion Berry) | Rick Crawford | Princella Smith | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | |||
| AR | 2 | Open D (Vic Snyder) | Tim Griffin | Scott Wallace | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | |||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | |||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Tony Amador | Brad Goehring | Elizabeth Emken | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | ||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | Katherine Smith | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | |||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | |||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | ||
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Tom Herrmann | Rick Torres | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | ||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Likely D | FL | 2 | ||
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | ||
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | |
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Likely D | FL | 22 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | ||
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 25 | |
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Paul Rish | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Open D | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | ||||
| HI | 1 | Special Election (D) | Charles Djou | HI | 22-May | HI | 1 | |||||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | Pat Bertroche | Jim Gibbons | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | Vaughn Ward | ID | 25-May | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | |||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 11 | ||||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | IL | 14 | ||||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Likely D | IN | 2 | ||||
| IN | 8 | Open D (Brad Ellsworth) | Dr. Larry Bucshon | John Snyder Jr. | John Lee Smith | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | ||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Mike Sodrel | Todd Young | Travis Hankins | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Dennis Moore) | Patricia Lightner | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | KS | 3 | |||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | |||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Nickie Monica | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 10 | Open D (Bill Delahunt) | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MD | 1 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | ||
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Mike Stahly | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Gene Goodman | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Jim Hagedom | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | |||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | Angela McGlowan | Henry Ross | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Tim D’Annunzio | Harold Jordan | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Leans D | NC | 8 | ||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | |||||
| NE | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Bob Bestani | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Jon Runyan | Joseph Rullo | Maurice Hill | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | ||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Alan Woodruff | Jerry Scott | NM | 1-Jun | Likely D | NM | 1 | ||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | Ed Bridges | Brad Leutwyler | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | ||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Gary Berntsen | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | |||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Thomas DeChiaro | Nan Hayworth | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | |||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 20 | ||||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | |||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | Logan Bell | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | |||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | Mark Bitz | David Gay | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | ||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Eric Massa) | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||||
| OH | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Likely R | OH | 2 | |||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | Frank Chestney | Bill Haney | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | ||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | John Adams | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | |||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Matt Miller | H. Doyle Smith | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 16 | ||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | Jeanette Moll | Dave Daubenmire | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | ||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Martha Moore | Mike Kelly | Ed Franz | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 3 | ||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Mary Beth Buchanan | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | |||
| PA | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | |||
| PA | 7 | Open D (Sestak) | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | Gloria Carlineo | Ira Hoffman | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | ||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | David Madeira | Malcolm Derk | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | ||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | Chris Paige | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | |||
| PA | 12 | Special Election Critz (D) | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | PA | 12 | |||||
| PA | 12 | Open D (John Murtha) | Bill Russell | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 12 | |||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Frank Ryan | Josh First | Dave Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Albert Spencer | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | SC | 5 | |||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Chris Nelson | Blake Curd | SD | 8-Jun | Leans D | SD | AL | |||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | ||
| TN | 6 | Open D (Bart Gordon) | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
| TN | 8 | Open D (John Tanner) | Stephen Fincher | George Finn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | |||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Leans D | TX | 17 | ||||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Bert Mizusawa | Ben Loyola | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | ||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | Ken Boyd | Virgil Goode (?) | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | ||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | Adam Light | Dave Moore | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connelly | Keith Fimian | Pat Herrity | Tim Hugo | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Brian Baird) | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Alan Mollohan | David B. McKinley | Sarah Minear | Mac Warner | WV | 11-May | Leans D | WV | 1 | ||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average | Leans D | -0.526 | |||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||
| Completed Primary | ||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||
| Special Election | ||||||||||||
| Updated | 1-May-10 | |||||||||||
Why do they keep saying that Ohio 18 leans dem? It does not lean democrat ever. Space was the first dem elected form this district in I don;t know how long and it was Soros’ financed propaganda campaign and Taft’s poor governance of the state that got him elected.
btt
there’s more to NC Congressional House races than just District 8 => Kissell va D’annuzio (sp).
We’re working hard in District 4 and 13 to unseat David Price (Roche, Lawson, Hutchins, Burnett)and Brad Miller (Huffmann, Randall, Reeves, Hurley). These two districts lean Dem, but there is a lot of angst to throw out the incumbents, AND we finally have some good candidates to go after the RATS.
GK Butterfield, District 1, is probably a shoe-in, but he has one Dem challenger and 4 Reps to contend with this year! The key Rep contender (Woolard) has some clout in the East, which may help through balance toward him to unseat the long-time Dem hack Butterfield.
I sent note to people who own master list.
please add us to the ping! thank you for the work you’re doing
I don’t think 4th is in play as long as Orange County is there.
However, if the GOP candidate doesn’t blow it, we have a real chance to get that Pelosi Puppet, Etheridge, out of there in the 2nd.
thanks for the ping, and always— great effort!
Wonder ? if this list/the KeyHouseRaces site could be the source for Boehner’s comments to Politico, that there are “100 seats in play for GOP”
:)
~Kate
Addendum to the May 11 primaries (my bad):
Nebraska and West Virginia have their primaries that day.
Thanks for the ping. A point of information: I notice that you use asterisks above as bullet points to start your paragraphs, which has the disadvantage that if your text exceeds one line the "bullet" doesn't stand out from the paragraph the way one might like. If you'd rather have your paragraphs come out like this:
- We have scrubbed the Master List of Key House races. Look for the RED FLAG on the left and you will see the 17 Congressional Districts where we have changed the order of the candidates, eliminated candidates that turned out to not be running or added candidates that are now running.
- We've updated the Real Clear Politics evaluations of the various races. Of our 90+ Congressional Districts that we think are in play, RCP has changed the rating of 41. A rough estimate has the Republicans with about a 3:1 advantage in these changes. In a few cases the Democrats improved their position. But in the great majority it was the Republicans looking better than they did a week ago.
- Due to the favorable changes by the folks at RCP, our "index" of the average of all the races on our list has moved from -.585 (Leans D) to -.526 (Leans D but not by much.) If the Index gets to -.499 then we will be rating our entire Master List with an average rating of "Toss Up" . If the index should get to +.500 then we would have an average rating for the list that is Leaning R. In any case changes in the ratings of the individual races will be occurring so stay tuned.
The HTML to create bulletized paragraphs is pretty straighforward:
<UL><LI>We have scrubbed the Master List of Key House races. Look for the RED FLAG on the left and you will see the 17 Congressional Districts where we have changed the order of the candidates, eliminated candidates that turned out to not be running or added candidates that are now running.<P><LI>We've updated the Real Clear Politics evaluations of the various races. Of our 90+ Congressional Districts that we think are in play, RCP has changed the rating of 41. A rough estimate has the Republicans with about a 3:1 advantage in these changes. In a few cases the Democrats improved their position. But in the great majority it was the Republicans looking better than they did a week ago.<P>
<LI>Due to the favorable changes by the folks at RCP, our "index" of the average of all the races on our list has moved from -.585 (Leans D) to -.526 (Leans D but not by much.) If the Index gets to -.499 then we will be rating our entire Master List with an average rating of "Toss Up" . If the index should get to +.500 then we would have an average rating for the list that is Leaning R. In any case changes in the ratings of the individual races will be occurring so stay tuned.</UL>
Thanks for the ping!
Thanks for the input and the good advice. Sometimes you just get in too big a hurry to do things right. I’ll do better next time.
Thanks for your support. You’ve been added to the ping list.
Well we think so of course.;) But then again we don't quite have 100 Districts on our list although we are over 90. Could be Boehner knows something we don't.
AR-3 is now an open seat. It is currently held by (R) John Boozman, who now is running for Blanche Lincoln’s senate seat.
BTTT
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