Posted on 02/05/2010 2:23:49 PM PST by JohnRLott
Most people seem to believe that the number of Americans with jobs is a clearly identifiable number. All you do is count up the number of people with jobs. Unfortunately, that isn't the way it works. The number reported each month is based on surveys, and surveys have can often have problems. As it turns out, the surveys estimating the number of people with jobs reported over the last couple of years suffered from some really big problems. The economy actually lost about 824,000 more jobs during the recession than we previously thought.
But those adjustments have so far only been made through March 2009, and there are strong reasons to believe that the survey data since then also needs to be adjusted downward. . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Jobs Created = 0.0
Jobs “Saved” = 6,000,000
<./> Obama statistics
According to Obama, since there are still some people with jobs, whatever that number is, he ‘saved’ them.
Good information, but I disagree with Lott’s conclusion.
The “household survey” of 110,000 people is far more subjective than the, ADP business survey. The household survey attempts to estimate 2 variables. The number of people working, and the number of people “looking”.
Using a smaller sample, unverifiable responses, and estimating 2 variables makes the “household” survey inherently more subjective than the business survey which directly represents a sample of about 22 million workers.
To understand the current employment trends, I believe it would be useful to consider “only” the “total Jobs” estimate, and ignore the “unemployment %”. The direct link to ADP is: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
...
The problem is that the two surveys have reached different estimates, with the household survey showing a significantly greater drop in the number of jobs than the establishment survey. And it turns out that there might be a simple reason for that. For the survey of firms, the list of firms surveyed doesn’t change very often. Thus the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts these numbers together, can only guess at the number of jobs created by new firms since they don’t even know how many new firms have been created each month. To get around this gap in the data, the Bureau makes an assumption that the jobs created at new companies is about equal to the jobs lost at companies that go out of business.
Unfortunately, that assumption hasn’t worked during the current recession. Firms have been going out of business and news ones haven’t sprung up to take their place. Keith Hall, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said that most of the revisions made up until March 2009 were made because the number of business closing hasn’t been matched by jobs create by new businesses.
...
” ... based on surveys, and surveys have can often have problems.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Clark It musta’ been a survey course then, huh?
CHUCKIE Yeah, it was, it was surveys.
” ... based on surveys, and surveys have can often have problems.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Clark It musta’ been a survey course then, huh?
CHUCKIE Yeah, it was, it was surveys.
BTTT
The economy actually lost about 824,000 more jobs during the recession than we previously thought. But those adjustments have so far only been made through March 2009, and there are strong reasons to believe that the survey data since then also needs to be adjusted downward...Thanks JohnRLott.
Unfortunately, that assumption hasn't worked during the current recession. Firms have been going out of business and news ones haven't sprung up to take their place."
Our current unemployment rate is probably still above 10%, though it may be improving.
Perhaps most telling:
Firms have been going out of business and news ones haven't sprung up to take their place.
Atlas shrugs.
Why would anyone want to start a new business now? There are always risks in starting a new business. But in addition, Pelosi, Reid and Obama want to order businesses around, are hostile to business and employers, and plan to redistribute business and personal income. This is not the time to start or expand a business given our current political/regulatory environment.
America was said once to be the best place to open a business, but maybe the worst place to raise a family. Maybe we won’t have either, Hm. Nice.
obamanomics
My son is only working 32 hrs a week and lucky to have his manufacturing job at all. Wonder how many other people out there are in the same boat? They are not unemployed, but neither are they underemployed, they just aren’t getting the 40 hrs necessary to make it. He’s single so is hit harder by the tax ax, and is barely holding his head above water. Little chance of taking on a second job due to the crappy obama economy.
How did they get the 9.7% number?
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