Poll Round-up: No Safe Democrat Governors in Any Major State.

Vanity based on polls by Rasmussen, PPP, Marist, Selzer, Gonzales, Sooner Poll ^ | 2-3-09 | Dangus

[dangus]

Will there be any Democratic governors left by 2012? 12 states will hold elections in 2012. Of the rest, all the states held by Democrats are likely to go Republican, except for some states with small populations.

New York
Lazio 45 (R), Paterson 38 (D)(i) (Rasmussen 1-18)
Lazio 46, Paterson 43 (Marist, 2-2)
Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is considering challenging Gov. Paterson in a primary.

Ohio
Kasich (R) 47, Strickland (D)(i) 40 (Ras., 1-12)

Pennsylvania
Corbett (R) 44, Oranato (D) 28 (Ras., 12-10)
Corbett 43, Wagner (D) 30
Corbett 48, Hoeffel (D) 26
Corbett 46, Doherty (D) 23

Michigan(open)
Bouchard (R) 42, Cherry (D) 32 (Ras., 12-26)
Hoekstra (R) 46, Cherry 32
Cox (R) 39, Cherry 34
Cherry has withdrawn, possibly due to his poor poll numbers. He was considered the strongest Democrat candidate.

New Jersey
Chris Christie (R) has already defeated John Corzine (D)(i), 49-45, as of 11-3.

Virginia
Bob McDonnell (R) has already defeated Creigh Deeds (D), 59-31, as of 11-3

Massachusetts
Baker (R) 27, Patrick (D)(i) 29, Cahill (I) 21 (Public Policy Polling, 1-9)
This is regarded as leaning Republican because of the likelihood that once one of the two challenging candidates, Baker and Cahill, pulls away from the other, the leader will draw massive votes from the trailing candidate.

Tennessee(open)
No polling data; Cook and CQ both rate this as leaning Republican.

Maryland
O'Malley (D)(i)49, Ehrlich (R) 38 (Gonzales, 9-17)

Wisconsin(open)
Walker (R) 48, Barrett (D) 38 (Ras., 1-26)
Neumann (R) 42, Barrett 38 (Ras.)

Colorado (open)
McInnis (R) 45, Hickenlopper 42 (Ras., 1-6)

Oklahoma(open)
Fallin (R) 51, Edmondson (D) 39 (SoonerPoll, 1-10) Fallin 52, Jari Askins (D) 36

Oregon
No major Republican candidate, yet.

Iowa
Branstad (R) 57, Culver (D)(i) 33 (Selzer & Co., 11-11) Branstad 54, Culver 34 (Ras., 9-22) Van Der Plaats (R) 45, Culver 37 (Selzer) Van Der Plaats 43, Culver 39 (Ras.)

Arkansas
No poll available. No announced Republican candidates, but the incumbent Democrat (Beebe) is considered strong.

Kansas
No poll available, but widely considered to be certainly Republican

New Mexico
No poll available, but considered one of the Democrats' best chances to keep a governorship

Maine(open)
Mills (R) 34, Mitchell (D) 31 (PPP, 10-19)

Wyoming(open?)
Freudenthal (D)(i) is believed to be still popular, but he is likely term-limited. (The constitutionality of the term limits is contested.) If he does not run, the seat is considered a likely pick-up for Republicans

[lonestar]

I liked Pete, Sr.

[dangus]

He never was in them, believe me.

[dangus]

Good chance, but my guess is he is homologous to Blumenthal in CT: support a mile wide and an inch deep. And I’d love to see the havoc it causes the NY Demonrat party to have a rich, white guy knock off the black incumbent, especially when neighboring Massachusetts is also having a rich, white Democrat try to knock off the nation’s other black governor.

[Vigilanteman]

Very pleased to see the poll numbers for Tom Corbett. He was the only Republican to win statewide office in the utterly horrible year of 2008. Hopefully, his poll numbers will have no direction to go but up as the sleezeballs in the state legislature are perp-walked before the courts.

I'm sort of hoping for Dan Onorato to with the Jackass nomination as he is an equally boring candidate but without the character.

Face it, Rendell won two terms not because he was popular, but because the Republicans ran boring opponents.

[paudio]

I don’t understand the list. Why 2012? The more pressing, IMO, are the states that have their election in 2010, because these governors will have a hand in redistricting the political map.

[HiTech RedNeck]

The elephants are coming and they are angry

[EDINVA]

My first reaction was “oh, no!” at the thought of Pete Domenici running for governor .. then I saw “Jr.” Pete Sr. was a really good senator for many years, but was wise to retire when he did.

[Impy]

Interesting to note the (mustached) Ex-governor of Iowa Terry Branstad would grind Chet Culver into a fine paste.

He seems a tad “establishment” to me. How was he as Governor? Conservative Bob Van Der Plaats leads Culver too.

Oregon needs to get with the program. They have gone the longest without a GOP Governor. Not since 1982 has the GOP won that office. State Sen Jason Atkinson seems like he qualifies as a “major candidate” to me. The rats may be hurt by their primary featuring far-left (and mustached) ex-Gov John Kitzhaber and Sec of State Bill Bradbury.

[Impy]

Still waiting for a ruling on whether the rat Governor of Wyoming is termed out or not.

[backhoe]

Thank you- good roundup.

Now, a word to the GOP ( AKA The Stupid Party )?

Don't blow it again, fools...

[AuH2ORepublican]

While it would appear that the state supreme court would declare the gubernatorial term-limits law to be unconstitutional (why would term-limit laws for other offices be unconstitutional but not this one?), it would be politically risky for Freudenthal to move to have it struck down and to seek reelection when the court does so. WY voters were willing to elect a moderate Democrat to the governorship, but would they be willing to reelect him after he disregarded the will of the voters and ran again?

[fieldmarshaldj]

No, no, Pete, Sr. is in declining health and is frail. I think he hated having to retire, but thought it would be unfair to his fellow New Mexicans to treat his office as a retirement home while he faded away and could no longer perform his duties. That showed a lot more character than so many other of the old timers (such as Byrd of WV).

[fieldmarshaldj]

WA state has gone longer than OR. Their last was in 1980 (excluding the ‘04 theft), although Spellman was a RINO. The last “Conservative” Governor was his one-term DINO predecessor, Dixy Lee Ray (1977-81).

I’m not crazy about Branstad, I endorsed Vander Plaats. We need new faces, not old retreads. If Branstad was truly concerned about IA, he would’ve removed that cancer named Harkin.

OR I’m not so sure about. They’re seriously lacking for a farm team. If Gordon Smith hadn’t been such a flake, I might’ve suggested he run for Governor. Their recent vote for tax hikes seems like the state is quite happy with big, dysfunctional government.

[Impy]

Damn that’s the second or third time I’ve made that mistake about Oregon/Washington.

In my subconscious I must count Dino Rossi. :D