Brown being defeated in is 2012 no certainty.
I’d say his odds are much better than Cao’s in his 64% black district. If Cao survives 2010 it would be no contest as his seat will pick up even more rat voters when it expands after redistricting.
A Republican just got elected to the U.S. Senate in MA, and we’ve got people wringing their hands about whether he’ll get reelected in 2012 (heck, the hand-wringing about 2012 began several days before the election. Guys, we won a huge victory, and it’s time to (i) celebrate and (ii) plan for greater successes in November and beyond. We don’t know exactly how Brown will vote (although all the evidence points to him being the most conservative Senator from MA in over 64 years, and clearly to the right of the Maine Sisters and RINO Senate candidates like Castle and Kirk), nor do we know what his approval ratings will look like in 2012 or what Obama’s effect will be atop the ballot in MA that year. Heck, we don’t even know if the governor of MA will be a Republican, Democrat or independent (it would not surprise me if Deval Patrick dropped out and a less incompetent Democrat ran).
Two and one-half years ago you would have never predicted the recent huge GOP victories in NJ, VA and MA, and we can’t pretend we know what will happen 2 and one-half years from now in a state that may well be trending our way a bit. MA does not need to become a GOP state to reelect Brown; if it returns to voting 45%+ for Republican presidential candidates as it did in the ‘80s, Brown would probably be favored for reelection.