About 70% of the New York State voters are registered Democrats. A portion of those are really middle of the road and can will vote Democrat or Republican based on the candidate.
Here’s what to hope for:
1) Gillibrand and Ford have an expensive brusing primary,
2) The Republicans pick a viable candidate to run regardless of the Democratic candidate, but (s)he must get goings early,
3) If the Republican runs a good campaign: result the NY seat becomes Republican.