Posted on 12/11/2009 2:38:29 AM PST by Scanian
The Democrats hold 258 U. S House seats, the Republicans 177. In the last two cycles (2006 and 2008) the Democrats gained a net 55 House seats. To win back control in 2010 the GOP will need to pick up a net 41 seats. Can they do it?
It is likely the GOP will lose some seats it now holds in the 2010 races. Even in the GOP sweep in 1994, when the party picked up a net 54 seats, Democrats won 4 GOP-held seats. The single most vulnerable Republican-held seat (in reality, the single most vulnerable seat for either Party) is that of Joseph Cao, in Lousiana 2, a district Barack Obama carried by 75% to 23% in 2008, and where African Americans are 60% of the District's residents. The GOP will be hard pressed to defend three open seats: Delaware's open seat (Mike Castle), Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk's seat), and Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach's seat). Obama won Delaware by 25%, Illinois 10 by 23%, and Pennsylvania 6 by 17%. Several Republican incumbents had tough races in 2008 and could face solid challenges again next year. Dave Reichert in Washington 8 and Ken Calvert in California 44 are two of a small number of such potentially vulnerable incumbents.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
As does all immigration, legal or illegal, it is why the democrats changed the immigration law in 1965 to bring in the third world.
BTTT!
Can the OP(formerly the GOP) win back Conservatives? The answer is no because they don’t want to win back Conservatives.
In NJ, Rush “the dolt” Holt is in a district that went overwhelmingly for Christie. The dolt had a very testy audience for his town hall in August and I believe he will lose next November.
Ohaha was heavly invested in the NJ gubernatorial race. His carefully-laid plans----for installing a permanent Dem majority USING ILLEGALS' VOTES went haywire. Pulling out all the stops for NJ made Ohaha a VERY good target for voters disgusted with Ohaha’s policies.
OBAMA WAS DESPERATE FOR NJ's CORZINE TO WIN. The NY Times reported:
(a) every TV ad Corzine put on the air was screened by Obama's WH team.
(b) Corzine's aides gave the WH daily briefings.
(c) Obama’s pollsters took over for Corzine’s polling team,
(d) White House operatives were on the ground for internal strategy sessions,
(e) White House operatives were orchestrating obscure pep rallies with Latinos (kept secret from voters),
(f) Ohaha campaigned in the state three times, Biden was there twice.
(g) Ohaha TV ads ran relentlessly in costly NY media markets.
(h) The crooked NJ Democrat Machine was also running at warp speed.
The New Jersey race was considered a "squeaker" that would go on till all hours. But two hours after the polls closed, the Repub was declared the winner with a comfortable 4-point margin (would have been higher were it not for Dem voter fraud).
Other pertinent facts:
>> Incumbent Dem Jon Corzine (the wealthy loser) outspent the Repub winner Chris Chirstie about 4-1.
>> New Jersey has a huge Democratic registration.
>> Corzine bragged he had 20,000 paid union helpers on the ground election day to get out the vote.
>> There was a third party candidate siphoning off Republican votes.
>> Corzine had the power of incumbency.
>> Corzine had the power of a crooked Democrat Machine cooking the vote.
>> Ohaha hid $17.5 BILLION stimlulus in New Jersey.....for Corzine's reelection campaign.
And still Corzine lost decisively.
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DEMS SUCKED UP BIGTIME TO FACILITATE AN ILLEGAL TAKEOVER. :
(a) Incumbent Corzine promised illegals ‘driving credentials’ & in-state tuition.
(b) Corzine REFUSED to enforce current immigration laws.
(c) Corzine formed a Blue Ribbon committee of latinos using tax dollars to mine hyphenate votes for Corzine.
(d) Also sucking-up was Democrat US Sen Robert Menendez, a Spanish-speaking Corzine campaigner.
(e) Corzine appointed latinos to the Supreme Court and to other high profile state jobs,
(f) Corzine had a "Peruvian Pac" endorsing him,
(g) Obama's operatives were orchestrating obscure pep rallies with NJ Latinos (kept secret from voters).
AND THE WINNER IS The winning Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate----a County Sheriff----was lacerated by latino groups. She had applied for the federal 287(g) program, to question every inmate coming into the County jail about his/her immigration status, regardless of the offense for which they are incarcerated. The Sheriff had sought to ensure that "criminals" are not unduly released for fear of further harm to the community. The 287(g) program would provide the Sheriff with personnel and tools to punish individuals being held at the County jail (this was in contrast to the criteria set forth by candidate Corzine). Illegals lacerated the Sheriff for political pandering and for scouting incidents of indictable offenses such as driving under the influence by undocumented immigrants.
NEW JERSEY IS "IDENTITY FRAUD CENTRAL" FOR LATINO IDENTITY THEFT.
Two Texans busted in bogus ID operation in NJ ----NORTH BERGEN, NJ -- July 21, 2006 -- Pelcastre brothers, Angel and Jorge, Dallas, Texas, were a walking threat to US national security, expert document forgers who, for a few thousand dollars, could give anyone a new identity, authorities said. The Texas brothers turned a NJ hotel room into a business office and were readying a massive cache of fake Social Security cards for delivery to a local NJ identity broker.
The Texas brothers were a "one-stop shop" for a myriad of fake US documents, including birth certificates, Social Security cards, driver's licenses for any state in the US, passports and resident alien cards, said state police. Officers happened upon two cars bearing Texas plates in a NJ hotel parking lot. Authorities wouldn't identify the NJ hotel by name for fear it would spark retribution. The Drug Interdiction Task Force, regularly runs checks.
The Texas brothers were followed to a NJ office supply store nearby where they purchased computer supplies. Officers then followed the Texans to a NJ storage facility in Secaucus, NJ, where the Texans loaded several boxes into a car. One of them stood lookout. Authorities approached the Texas brothers when they returned to the NJ hotel and questioned them separately. The Texas brothers consented to a search.
Police recovered laminating sheets with built-in security features, pages of blank documents waiting for fake names and information, finished documents, computers and software to create the fake IDs. All told, the haul was worth about $500,000 on the street. Police also recovered $6,000 in cash, which was the first payment from a NJ fake document broker for a shipment of 500 Social Security cards.
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The New Jersey race was considered a "squeaker" that would go on till all hours. But two hours after the polls closed, the Repub was declared the winner with a comfortable 4-point margin (would have been higher were it not for Dem voter fraud).
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Ohaha has turned toxic---he is frantic---rushing to get slush funds (from healthcare nillions and unspent stim) money into the hands of ACORN, SEIU, immigrant groups, and others, BEFORE the Nov 2010-12 elections.
Even stupid Dems know that, for them, it's curtains in 2010-12---unless massive voter fraud takes place. They need to buy votes, and are pulling out all the stops to get billions into the hands of their operatives---ACORN, SEIU, immigrant groups, and others.
“Can the GOP win back the house?”
Nah. Not with all these brilliant socialists around.
(A socialist is someone who loves his leftist representative because he gets everyone lots of money from the federal treasury.)
IMHO
OBAMA at -16 this morning.
"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -16. That’s the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President "
The GOP has a 4 pt. lead in the generic, and there are more “pure blue” districts” than “pure red,” which works in our favor (the Dem voters tend to be “bottled up” in a few far-left districts, rather than spread more evenly across the map)
You are absolutely incorrect. A Republican majority means we have Speaker of the House Steve King (or someone like him) rather than Speaker Pelosi.
A RINO counts just as much towards a majority as a true conservative.
The plan is to run hard core conservatives in the primaries and then to vote a straight Republican ticket in the general.
These rabid Marxists must be stopped!!
Overall - the GOP netting upto 30 seats is a near certainty - but not enough to win back the House. Netting the additional 10-12 needed will depend on the 2 indicators above, which are in turn a reflection of the prevailing national circumstances on jobs, etc.
All in theory only. Unless they grow the nads to take the fight to the enemy and stop the “turn the other cheek” gentlemanly behavior the democrat party will continue remove the other ass cheek in large chunks through their usual mode of lying, cheating and stealing.
Conservatives who want Pelosi to remain as speaker and want the Democrats to destroy our economy, our freedom and our future can very easily get their wish by not helping Republicans.
Hmmm... well, yes - that’s a different issue, isn’t it? It often seems like we get Republicans into congress, and, all of a sudden, they turn Liberal. Personally, I’m not entirely certain what to do about that. Let’s face it, though - a Republican house and senate are NOT the same as a conservative house and senate.
If they election were today, I’d be surprised if the GOP didn’t win back the House. A sixty seat gain might even be possible.
I predict the Republicans will pick up both the House and Senate. The more important question is what will they do with it when they take over?
I guess it depends on the quality of the candidates.
If we depend on the party establishment, a la Dede Scozzafava, we’re dead ducks.
It would take quite an effort to take over the Senate since only 20 Dhimmi seats are on the line.
They're more like 1994 when Republicans didn't lose a single incumbent senator, congressman, or governor.
“I predict the Republicans will pick up both the House and Senate.”
Maybe the House, but not the Senate. I predict the Republicans will pick up a net of five Senate seats, which will bring the final standing to: Dims...53; Indies...2; Reps...45.
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